week 25
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
Ben Brown
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
ON THE 60-DAY IL
Sell High luck-free xERA 3.22 is 1.37 above the ERA, regression coming — BABIP-against 0.243 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.95 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 9ERA 3.22WHIP 1.22W 0–1SV 0–0
Brown is a sell-high — his 1.85 ERA is luck, not skill.
Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %24.5%—−2.1% ▼vs his ~26.6% career norm
- Walk %7.2%—−0.2% ▼vs his ~7.4% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.243 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 3.22 is 1.37 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed43.0%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+3.0%vs his norm —
179 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.3%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.7%vs his norm —
179 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.279
lg avg .315 ▼−.036vs his norm —
265 / 200 TBF
xERA3.22
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.88vs his norm —
265 / 200 TBF
ERA1.85
lg avg 4.10 ▼−2.25vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
68 / 200 IP
Strikeout %24.5%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+2.5%vs his norm −2.1% ▼
265 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.2%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.8%vs his norm −0.2% ▼
265 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.243
lg avg .295 ▼−.052vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
179 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.9%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.9%vs his norm —
265 / 60 TBF
Chase %30.6%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+2.1%vs his norm —
265 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo96.3 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+2.3 mphvs his norm —
1004 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 24.5%→25.4%signal9 K — K% 24.5% (signal) lifted to career ~26.6% → projected 25.4% over ~9 remaining IP.
xERA 3.22signal3.22 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.22 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 7.2% + contactsignal1.22 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.283 gives a 1.22 skill WHIP.
run support + role0-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0-0 SV — role: middle, in the save mix only situationally.
rosterdeep3.22 ERA, 1.22 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.