week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Spencer Strider
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
ON THE 60-DAY IL
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (3.48); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 71ERA 4.04WHIP 1.31W 3–7SV 0
Strider is a hold — league average with no edge either way.
ROS projects K 40 YTD → 71 ROS, ERA 3.77 YTD → 4.04 ROS, WHIP 1.26 YTD → 1.31 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %27.9%—−5.3% ▼vs his ~33.2% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (3.48)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed36.7%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−3.3%vs his norm —
98 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed11.2%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.2%vs his norm —
98 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.291
lg avg .315 ▼−.024vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
165 / 200 TBF
xERA3.48
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.62vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
165 / 200 TBF
ERA5.31
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.21vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
39 / 200 IP
Strikeout %27.9%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+5.9%vs his norm −5.3% ▼
165 / 70 TBF
Walk %12.1%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+4.1%vs his norm +3.3% ▲Walk % is above his ~8.8% norm — expect it to fall.
165 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.270
lg avg .295 ▼−.025vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
98 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %14.3%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+3.3%vs his norm —
165 / 60 TBF
Chase %28.7%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+0.2%vs his norm —
165 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo95.1 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+1.1 mphvs his norm —
691 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 27.9%→30.8%signal71 K — K% 27.9% (signal) lifted to career ~33.2% → projected 30.8% over ~50 remaining IP.
xERA 3.48noise4.04 ERA — xERA 3.48 (noise) blended 10% skill / 90% league 4.10 at 31 IP.
BB% 12.1% + contactnoise1.31 WHIP — a 12% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.292 gives a 1.40 skill WHIP, blended 1…
run support + role3-7 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop71 K ROS, 4.04 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.