MLB Daily DeltaWeek 27 · September 27, 2026
week 27
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH

PJ Poulin

WSH·P
data as of September 27, 2026·week 27
ON THE 60-DAY IL
Sell High BABIP-against 0.225 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; luck-free xERA 5.43 is 2.73 above the ERA, regression coming; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.95
ROSK 0ERA 3.78WHIP 1.26W 0–0SV 0–0

Poulin is a sell-high — the ERA leans on luck, not stuff.

His ERA sits at 2.70, but the number holding it down is his BABIP-against: .225, well below the league average of .295. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable, and he has 106. That gap is luck, not skill. His expected ERA is 5.43, more than two and a half runs above the ERA, and that gap points directly at regression. There is no strikeout foundation underneath: he fans 16.3% of batters, below the league average of 22%, with a 6.8% swinging-strike rate and a fastball at 90.1 mph. He has allowed a 44.3% hard-hit rate and 9.4% barrels, both above league. The scoreboard flatters him; the skill metrics do not. Sell high. With a 0 K / 3.78 ERA / 1.26 WHIP rest-of-season line, the sell window is a deep-league trade asset before the luck runs dry.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %16.3%—−4.3% ▼vs his ~20.6% career norm

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.225 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
  • xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 5.43 is 2.73 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed44.3%
44.3%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+4.3%vs his norm —
106 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed9.4%
9.4%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.4%vs his norm —
106 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.353
.353*
lg avg .315 ▲+.038vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
153 / 200 TBF
xERA5.43
5.43*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.33vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
153 / 200 TBF
ERA2.70
2.70*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.40vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
36.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %16.3%
norm16.3%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−5.7%vs his norm −4.3% ▼
153 / 70 TBF
Walk %13.7%
norm13.7%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+5.7%vs his norm 0.0% Walk % is below his ~13.7% norm — expect it to rise.
153 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.225
.225*
lg avg .295 ▼−.070vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
106 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %6.8%
6.8%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−4.2%vs his norm —
153 / 60 TBF
Chase %23.7%
23.7%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−4.8%vs his norm —
153 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo90.1 mph
90.1 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−3.9 mphvs his norm —
635 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 16.3%→18.7%signal0 K — K% 16.3% (signal) lifted to career ~20.6% → projected 18.7% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 5.43noise3.78 ERA — xERA 5.43 (noise) blended 5% skill / 95% league 3.70 at 25 IP.
BB% 13.7% + contactnoise1.26 WHIP — a 14% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.286 gives a 1.67 skill WHIP, blended 5…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (closer)0-0 SV — role: closer.
rosterdeep2 SV, 3.78 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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