MLB Daily DeltaWeek 12 · June 14, 2026
week 12
this weekSELL-HIGH
last week—

PJ Poulin

WSH·P
data as of June 14, 2026·week 12
Sell High strikeout rate 16% is stable and well below league, limits the ceiling — BABIP-against 0.235 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; luck-free xERA 6.09 is 2.81 above the ERA, regression coming; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.95
ROSK 29ERA 3.82WHIP 1.27W 3–6SV 2–3

Poulin is a sell-high — his ERA is built on luck.

His ERA is 3.28, but the number keeping runs off the board is his BABIP-against: .235, 60 points below league average. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable; he has 72. That gap is luck, not skill. His expected ERA is 6.09 — nearly three runs higher than the box score. His strikeout rate is 16%, well below his 20.6% career baseline and below the 22% league average, so there is no strikeout stuff to fall back on. The batted-ball data is equally unflattering: 50% hard-hit rate allowed and 11.1% barrel rate, both well above league average and now stable. When the BABIP normalizes, the ERA will follow the xERA. Sell high. 29 K with a 3.82 ERA and 1.27 WHIP: a deep-league-only streamer, not a keeper.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %16.0%—−4.5% ▼vs his ~20.6% career norm

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.235 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
  • xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 6.09 is 2.81 above the ERA — regression coming
  • p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 16% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed50.0%
50.0%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+10.0%vs his norm —
72 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed11.1%
11.1%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.1%vs his norm —
72 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.377
.377*
lg avg .315 ▲+.062vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
106 / 200 TBF
xERA6.09
6.09*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.99vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
106 / 200 TBF
ERA3.28
3.28*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.82vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
24.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %16.0%
norm16.0%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−6.0%vs his norm −4.5% ▼
106 / 70 TBF
Walk %15.1%
norm15.1%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+7.1%vs his norm +1.4% ▲Walk % is above his ~13.7% norm — expect it to fall.
106 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.235
.235*
lg avg .295 ▼−.060vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
72 / 800 BIP

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 16.0%→19.0%signal29 K — K% 16.0% (signal) lifted to career ~20.6% → projected 19.0% over ~34 remaining IP.
xERA 6.09noise3.82 ERA — xERA 6.09 (noise) blended 5% skill / 95% league 3.70 at 25 IP.
BB% 15.1% + contactnoise1.27 WHIP — a 15% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.290 gives a 1.77 skill WHIP, blended 5…
run support + role3-6 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (closer)2-3 SV — role: closer.
rosterdeep5 SV, 3.82 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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