week 18
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
PJ Poulin
data as of July 29, 2026·week 18
ON THE 15-DAY IL
Sell High BABIP-against 0.225 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; luck-free xERA 5.41 is 2.71 above the ERA, regression coming; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.95 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 15ERA 3.78WHIP 1.26W 1–3SV 1–2
Poulin is a sell-high — ERA built on BABIP luck.
Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %16.3%—−4.3% ▼vs his ~20.6% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.225 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 5.41 is 2.71 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed44.3%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+4.3%vs his norm —
106 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed9.4%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.4%vs his norm —
106 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.353
lg avg .315 ▲+.038vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
153 / 200 TBF
xERA5.41
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.31vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
153 / 200 TBF
ERA2.70
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.40vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
36.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %16.3%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−5.7%vs his norm −4.3% ▼
153 / 70 TBF
Walk %13.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+5.7%vs his norm 0.0% Walk % is below his ~13.7% norm — expect it to rise.
153 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.225
lg avg .295 ▼−.070vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
106 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %6.8%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−4.2%vs his norm —
153 / 60 TBF
Chase %23.7%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−4.8%vs his norm —
153 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo90.1 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−3.9 mphvs his norm —
635 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 16.3%→18.7%signal15 K — K% 16.3% (signal) lifted to career ~20.6% → projected 18.7% over ~18 remaining IP.
xERA 5.41noise3.78 ERA — xERA 5.41 (noise) blended 5% skill / 95% league 3.70 at 25 IP.
BB% 13.7% + contactnoise1.26 WHIP — a 14% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.286 gives a 1.67 skill WHIP, blended 5…
run support + role1-3 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (closer)1-2 SV — role: closer.
rosterdeep3 SV, 3.78 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.