Rest of Season Projection
CadeCategoryPJ
52K ←29
3.60ERA ←3.82
1.22WHIP ←1.27
2–4W →3–6
18–34SV ←2–3
Current Season
CadeCategoryPJ
42K ←18
2.60ERA ←3.20
1.08WHIP ←1.46
2W →3
20SV ←2
What Each Player's System Trusts
Cade Smith
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (2.28)
PJ Poulin
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.235 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 6.09 is 2.81 above the ERA — regression coming
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 16% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Cade Smith: 52 K / 3.60 ERA. PJ Poulin: 29 K / 3.82 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).