MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
week 31
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH

Yunior Marte

SF·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Sell High strikeout rate 15% is stable and well below league, limits the ceiling — BABIP-against 0.260 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; luck-free xERA 5.69 is 1.25 above the ERA, regression coming; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.95
ROSK 0ERA 4.10WHIP 1.30W 0–0SV 0

Marte is a sell-high — the ERA is hiding harder contact

His 4.44 ERA looks manageable, but it is being held down by a BABIP-against of .260 against a league average of .295. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable and he has 78, so that gap is luck, not skill. The contact behind it is worse than the ERA: his expected ERA is 5.69, a run and a quarter higher than what the box score shows, and he allows a 46.2% hard-hit rate and an 11.5% barrel rate, both above league. The strikeout rate is the real problem — 14.6%, well below league, and trending down as the sample grows. There is no swing-and-miss foundation here to absorb the regression. Sell high. A 0 K / 4.10 ERA / 1.30 WHIP projection is streaming-only, so treat the inflated line as a trade window and sell.

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.260 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
  • xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 5.69 is 1.25 above the ERA — regression coming
  • p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 15% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed46.2%
46.2%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+6.2%vs his norm —
78 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed11.5%
11.5%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.5%vs his norm —
78 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.360
.360*
lg avg .315 ▲+.045vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
103 / 200 TBF
xERA5.69
5.69*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.59vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
103 / 200 TBF
ERA4.44
4.44*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.34vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
24.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %14.6%
14.6%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−7.4%vs his norm —
103 / 70 TBF
Walk %9.7%
9.7%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.7%vs his norm —Walk % is above the ~8.0% league average — expect it to fall.
103 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.260
.260*
lg avg .295 ▼−.035vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
78 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %9.2%
9.2%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.8%vs his norm —
103 / 60 TBF
Chase %25.4%
25.4%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−3.1%vs his norm —
103 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo93.0 mph
93.0 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−1.0 mphvs his norm —
381 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 14.6%→16.1%signal0 K — K% 14.6% (signal) lifted to SP mean ~22.0% → projected 16.1% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 5.69noise4.10 ERA — xERA 5.69 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 4.10 at 5 IP.
BB% 9.7% + contactnoise1.30 WHIP — a 10% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.292 gives a 1.54 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop0 K ROS, 4.10 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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