week 29
this weekHOLD
last week—
Colton Gordon
data as of October 9, 2026·week 29
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (6.11); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0
Gordon is a hold — the early numbers say league average, nothing more.
ROS projects K 11 YTD → 0 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %17.1%—−2.3% ▼vs his ~19.4% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (6.11)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed45.3%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+5.3%vs his norm —
53 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.5%vs his norm —Barrel % Allowed is below the ~8.0% league average — expect it to rise.
53 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.371
lg avg .315 ▲+.056vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
70 / 200 TBF
xERA6.11
lg avg 4.10 ▲+2.01vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
70 / 200 TBF
ERA8.79
lg avg 4.10 ▲+4.69vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
14.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %17.1%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−4.9%vs his norm −2.3% ▼
70 / 70 TBF
Walk %5.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.3%vs his norm +0.6% ▲Walk % is above his ~5.1% norm — expect it to fall.
70 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.404
lg avg .295 ▲+.109vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
53 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %8.1%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−2.9%vs his norm —
70 / 60 TBF
Chase %31.3%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+2.8%vs his norm —
70 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo91.3 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−2.7 mphvs his norm —
272 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 17.1%→18.8%signal0 K — K% 17.1% (signal) lifted to career ~19.4% → projected 18.8% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 6.11noise3.70 ERA — xERA 6.11 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 9 IP.
BB% 5.7% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 6% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.302 gives a 1.36 skill WHIP, blended 0%…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.