MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 18, 2026
Engraved portrait of Kyle Freeland
week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD

Kyle Freeland

COL·P
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Hold · leans sell but luck-free xERA 5.55 is +1.45 vs league, the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy — BABIP-against 0.362 elevated and unstable, the 7.36 ERA overstates the damage; a hold that leans sell — skill sits a hair below league, nothing to chase.med 0.60
ROSK 45ERA 5.04WHIP 1.33W 1–2SV 0

Freeland is a hold — the ERA is noise, but the skill is still below league.

His 7.36 ERA looks ugly, but it is inflated by a .362 BABIP-against — 67 points above league average. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable; he has 300. That gap is luck, and the ERA is not as bad as it looks. The underlying xERA is 5.55, 1.45 runs above league average, and that number is stable at 402 batters faced. The contact he allows is too hard: a 43.7% hard-hit rate and 11.0% barrel rate are both well above league. His strikeout rate is below league and his walk rate is well below league — a narrow margin for error. The skill it regresses to is below average, not a buy. The panic is overdone, but there is no edge here. Hold. 45 K and a 5.04 ERA with 1-2 wins: a streaming-only in deep formats, not a roster hold.

VS His Norm

  • Walk %4.5%—−2.6% ▼vs his ~7.2% career norm
  • Strikeout %19.7%—+2.4% ▲vs his ~17.3% career norm

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.362 elevated and unstable — the 7.36 ERA overstates the damage
  • xeraSIGNALbut luck-free xERA 5.55 is +1.45 vs league — the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed43.7%
43.7%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+3.7%vs his norm —
300 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed11.0%
11.0%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.0%vs his norm —
300 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.359
believable since May 26.359*
lg avg .315 ▲+.044vs his norm —
402 / 200 TBF
xERA5.55
5.55*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.45vs his norm —
402 / 200 TBF
ERA7.36
7.36*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+3.26vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
88 / 200 IP
Strikeout %19.7%
norm19.7%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−2.3%vs his norm +2.4% ▲
402 / 70 TBF
Walk %4.5%
norm4.5%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−3.5%vs his norm −2.6% ▼
402 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.362
.362*
lg avg .295 ▲+.067vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
300 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.7%
11.7%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.7%vs his norm —
402 / 60 TBF
Chase %34.0%
34.0%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+5.5%vs his norm —
402 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo91.5 mph
91.5 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−2.5 mphvs his norm —
1451 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 19.7%→18.9%signal45 K — K% 19.7% (signal) tempered to career ~17.3% → projected 18.9% over ~52 remaining…
xERA 5.55signal5.04 ERA — xERA 5.55 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 48 IP.
BB% 4.5% + contactsignal1.33 WHIP — a 4% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.320 gives a 1.35 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role1-2 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop45 K ROS, 5.04 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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