MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Kyle Freeland
week 25
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD

Kyle Freeland

COL·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
ON THE 15-DAY IL
Hold · leans sell but luck-free xERA 5.15 is +1.05 vs league, the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy — BABIP-against 0.328 elevated and unstable, the 6.37 ERA overstates the damage; a hold that leans sell — skill sits a hair below league, nothing to chase.med 0.60
ROSK 10ERA 4.78WHIP 1.34W 0–0SV 0

Freeland is a hold — the ERA overstates it, the skill still sits below league.

His BABIP-against is .328, 33 points above the league average, and it needs around 800 balls in play to become reliable. He has 417, so that gap is still luck, not a fact about his pitching — which is why the 6.37 ERA on the board is worse than what he has actually thrown. But strip the noise out and the number underneath is not good either. His xERA is 5.15, more than a run above the league average of 4.1, and that figure is past the sample it needs to be trusted. He strikes out just 18.6% of batters while a below-average 91.4 mph fastball is not missing bats. The panic is overdone and the buy is not there. Hold. 10 K and a 4.78 ERA the rest of the way make him a drop in most formats — deep-league-only holds at best.

VS His Norm

  • Walk %5.1%—−2.0% ▼vs his ~7.2% career norm
  • Strikeout %18.6%—+1.3% ▲vs his ~17.3% career norm

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.328 elevated and unstable — the 6.37 ERA overstates the damage
  • xeraSIGNALbut luck-free xERA 5.15 is +1.05 vs league — the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed42.4%
42.4%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+2.4%vs his norm —
417 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed10.6%
10.6%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.6%vs his norm —
417 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.346
.346*
lg avg .315 ▲+.031vs his norm —
554 / 200 TBF
xERA5.15
5.15*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.05vs his norm —
554 / 200 TBF
ERA6.37
6.37*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+2.27vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
124.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %18.6%
norm18.6%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−3.4%vs his norm +1.3% ▲
554 / 70 TBF
Walk %5.1%
norm5.1%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.9%vs his norm −2.0% ▼
554 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.328
.328*
lg avg .295 ▲+.033vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
417 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.4%
11.4%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.5%vs his norm —
554 / 60 TBF
Chase %34.3%
34.3%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+5.8%vs his norm —
554 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo91.4 mph
91.4 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−2.6 mphvs his norm —
2006 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 18.6%→18.3%signal10 K — K% 18.6% (signal) tempered to career ~17.3% → projected 18.3% over ~12 remaining…
xERA 5.15signal4.78 ERA — xERA 5.15 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 48 IP.
BB% 5.1% + contactsignal1.34 WHIP — a 5% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.312 gives a 1.36 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop10 K ROS, 4.78 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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