Kyle Freeland

Freeland is a sell — skill is well below league with no luck.

His expected ERA is 6.35, more than two runs above the league average of 4.10, and his sample of 230 batters faced is past the point where xERA becomes reliable. There is no luck story to fall back on: his BABIP-against is not suppressed, and xERA tracks his actual ERA closely. The underlying metrics are equally unflattering. He allows a 42.5% hard-hit rate and 9.6% barrel rate, both above league averages, and his xwOBA allowed is .386 — 71 points higher than league average. He strikes out only 18.7% of batters, well below league, and his walk rate is below average but not low enough to compensate. His xERA has been stepping up across the sample, confirming the trend. The market may still see a starter with a pulse; the data sees a pitcher who is below replacement level.