MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Kyle Freeland
week 31
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last weekHOLD

Kyle Freeland

COL·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Hold · leans sell but luck-free xERA 5.54 is +1.44 vs league, the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy — BABIP-against 0.336 elevated and unstable, the 6.65 ERA overstates the damage; a hold that leans sell — skill sits a hair below league, nothing to chase.med 0.60
ROSK 0ERA 5.04WHIP 1.36W 0–0SV 0

Freeland is a hold — the ERA is worse than the skill, the skill is still short.

His 6.65 ERA is not the whole story, but neither is it a lie. His BABIP-against is .336 against a league average of .295, and that gap is luck — BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable and he has 469. Strip it out and his expected ERA is 5.54, still more than a run above league, and that number has been stepping up across the sample rather than settling down. The contact he allows backs it: 43.5% hard-hit and 11.1% barrels, both above league, with a .356 expected wOBA allowed. He does limit walks at 4.7%, but a 17.6% strikeout rate and 91.3 mph fastball do not offset the hard contact. The panic is overdone; the arm is still below average. Hold. 0 K and a 5.04 ERA ROS makes him waiver-streaming-only, a fringe hold to drop at the first better arm.

VS His Norm

  • Walk %4.7%—−2.5% ▼vs his ~7.2% career norm
  • Strikeout %17.6%—+0.3% ▲vs his ~17.3% career norm

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.336 elevated and unstable — the 6.65 ERA overstates the damage
  • xeraSIGNALbut luck-free xERA 5.54 is +1.44 vs league — the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed43.5%
43.5%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+3.5%vs his norm —
469 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed11.1%
11.1%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.1%vs his norm —
469 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.356
believable since May 26.356*
lg avg .315 ▲+.041vs his norm —
613 / 200 TBF
xERA5.54
5.54*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.44vs his norm —
613 / 200 TBF
ERA6.65
6.65*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+2.55vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
135.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %17.6%
norm17.6%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−4.4%vs his norm +0.3% ▲
613 / 70 TBF
Walk %4.7%
norm4.7%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−3.3%vs his norm −2.5% ▼
613 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.336
.336*
lg avg .295 ▲+.041vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
469 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.3%
11.3%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.3%vs his norm —
613 / 60 TBF
Chase %33.9%
33.9%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+5.4%vs his norm —
613 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo91.3 mph
91.3 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−2.7 mphvs his norm —
2187 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 17.6%→17.5%signal0 K — K% 17.6% (signal) tempered to career ~17.3% → projected 17.5% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 5.54signal5.04 ERA — xERA 5.54 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 48 IP.
BB% 4.7% + contactsignal1.36 WHIP — a 5% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.319 gives a 1.39 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop0 K ROS, 5.04 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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