MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
week 25
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD

Tommy Nance

MIN·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
Hold · leans sell skill near league average (4.29); a hold that leans sell — skill sits a hair below league, nothing to chase.med 0.60
ROSK 6ERA 4.08WHIP 1.30W 0–0SV 0

Nance is a hold — league-average skill, nothing unstable behind it.

His expected ERA is 4.29, essentially league average, and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. His xwOBA allowed is .319 against a league average of .315, so the contact he gives up is ordinary, and the expected ERA tracks it. His strikeout rate is 25.6%, a bit above the 22% league mark, and his swinging-strike rate of 12.5% supports it. The walks are roughly average and the chase rate is high. His xERA is stepping up across the sample, but only to league level, not past it. Nothing here is being propped up by luck and nothing is being dragged down by it. He is what the numbers say he is. Hold. 6 K and a 4.08 ERA is waiver-wire filler — a deep-league streamer at best, not a hold worth a roster spot.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %25.6%—−0.4% ▼vs his ~26.0% career norm
  • Walk %8.8%—−0.4% ▼vs his ~9.2% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALskill near league average (4.29)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed37.8%
37.8%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−2.2%vs his norm —
148 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.8%
6.8%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.2%vs his norm —
148 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.319
.319*
lg avg .315 ▲+.004vs his norm —
227 / 200 TBF
xERA4.29
4.29*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.19vs his norm —
227 / 200 TBF
ERA3.93
3.93*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.17vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
52.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %25.6%
norm25.6%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+3.6%vs his norm −0.4% ▼
227 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.8%
norm8.8%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.8%vs his norm −0.4% ▼
227 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.321
.321*
lg avg .295 ▲+.026vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
148 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.5%
12.5%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.5%vs his norm —
227 / 60 TBF
Chase %35.6%
35.6%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+7.1%vs his norm —
227 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.6 mph
94.6 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.6 mphvs his norm —
866 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 25.6%→25.8%signal6 K — K% 25.6% (signal) held to career ~26.0% → projected 25.8% over ~5 remaining IP.
xERA 4.29signal4.08 ERA — xERA 4.29 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 3.70 at 22 IP.
BB% 8.8% + contactsignal1.30 WHIP — a 9% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.300 gives a 1.33 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop4.08 ERA, 1.30 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

Tweet
Compare with

Comparisons

head-to-head matchups