Is Tommy Nance a buy or sell for fantasy baseball?

Sell — metrics are consistently below average with signal behind the decline.

What is Tommy Nance's rest-of-season outlook?

3.92 ERA hides 4.45 xERA; walks and .327 BABIP won't hold.

week 31

this weekSELL

last weekSELL

Tommy Nance

MIN·P

data as of October 26, 2026·week 31

Sell stable xERA 4.45 +0.35 vs league with no luck excuse; move on.med 0.66

ROSK 0ERA 4.19WHIP 1.31W 0–0SV 0

Nance is a sell — the expected ERA is climbing and the skill is below league.

His expected ERA is 4.45, .35 above the league average of 4.10, and it has stepped up across the sample rather than settling back. He has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable, so it is not an early-season mirage. The contact he allows is not doing the damage — a 38.2% hard-hit rate and 7.3% barrel rate both sit slightly below league — but his walk rate of 9.3% is above the league's 8.0% and keeps runners on for free. His strikeout rate of 26.4% and swinging-strike rate of 12.6% are real, but they are not enough to pull the expected ERA back to league. There is no luck story to hide behind: the number is what it is. Sell. 0 SV and a 4.19 ERA make him waiver-wire fringe; fade the production and drop before the walk rate bites.

VS His Norm

Strikeout %26.4%—+0.4% ▲vs his ~26.0% career norm
Walk %9.3%—+0.1% ▲vs his ~9.2% career norm

Drivers

xeraSIGNALstable xERA 4.45 +0.35 vs league with no luck excuse

metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?

Hard-Hit % Allowed38.2%

lg avg 40.0% ▼−1.8%vs his norm —

165 / 50 BBE

Barrel % Allowed7.3%

lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.7%vs his norm —

165 / 60 BBE

xwOBA Allowed.323

lg avg .315 ▲+.008vs his norm —

258 / 200 TBF

xERA4.45

lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.35vs his norm —

258 / 200 TBF

ERA3.92

lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.18vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.

59.7 / 200 IP

Strikeout %26.4%

lg avg 22.0% ▲+4.4%vs his norm +0.4% ▲

258 / 70 TBF

Walk %9.3%

lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.3%vs his norm +0.1% ▲

258 / 170 TBF

BABIP Against.327

lg avg .295 ▲+.032vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.

165 / 800 BIP

Swinging-Strike %12.6%

lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.6%vs his norm —

258 / 60 TBF

Chase %34.7%

lg avg 28.5% ▲+6.2%vs his norm —

258 / 60 TBF

Fastball Velo94.6 mph

lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.6 mphvs his norm —

981 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf

K% 26.4%→26.2%signal0 K — K% 26.4% (signal) tempered to career ~26.0% → projected 26.2% over ~0 remaining IP.

xERA 4.45signal4.19 ERA — xERA 4.45 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 3.70 at 22 IP.

BB% 9.3% + contactsignal1.31 WHIP — a 9% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.302 gives a 1.34 skill WHIP, blended 65…

run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.

role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.

rosterdrop4.19 ERA, 1.31 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

VS His Norm

Drivers

5×5 ROS Outlook

Comparisons