week 18
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Tommy Nance
data as of July 24, 2026·week 18
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (4.37); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 23ERA 3.71WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0
Nance is a hold — steady numbers, nothing to chase.
ROS projects K 26 YTD → 23 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %24.8%—−1.2% ▼vs his ~26.0% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (4.37)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed35.3%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−4.7%vs his norm —
102 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.9%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.1%vs his norm —
102 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.322
lg avg .315 ▲+.007vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
157 / 200 TBF
xERA4.37
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.27vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
157 / 200 TBF
ERA3.96
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.14vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
36.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %24.8%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+2.8%vs his norm −1.2% ▼
157 / 70 TBF
Walk %10.2%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.2%vs his norm +1.0% ▲Walk % is above his ~9.2% norm — expect it to fall.
157 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.302
lg avg .295 ▲+.007vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
102 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.3%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.3%vs his norm —
157 / 60 TBF
Chase %35.0%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+6.5%vs his norm —
157 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.6 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.6 mphvs his norm —
584 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 24.8%→25.5%signal23 K — K% 24.8% (signal) lifted to career ~26.0% → projected 25.5% over ~19 remaining IP.
xERA 4.37noise3.71 ERA — xERA 4.37 (noise) blended 2% skill / 98% league 3.70 at 22 IP.
BB% 10.2% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 10% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.296 gives a 1.39 skill WHIP, blended 2…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.71 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.