MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Anthony Kay
week 25
this weekSELL
last weekSELL

Anthony Kay

CWS·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
Sell stable xERA 4.95 +0.85 vs league with no luck excuse; move on.high 0.81
ROSK 9ERA 4.65WHIP 1.36W 1–1SV 0

Kay is a sell — stable skill below league, no luck to blame

His xERA is 4.95 — nearly a full run above the league average of 4.10 — and it has climbed across the season rather than settled. The sample is past 600 batters faced, so this is the number, not noise. He allows a .340 xwOBA, again above league, and his strikeout rate of 18.3% sits below the 22% average while his walk rate is dead average. There is no luck story to hide behind: his contact-quality numbers are nearly league-neutral and nothing unstable is suppressing his line. A live fastball at 95.8 mph is not translating into missed bats. Four-plus months have shown the level. Sell. 9 K and a 4.65 ERA ROS is a drop, deep-league streaming-only — fade the production entirely.

VS His Norm

  • Walk %7.9%—−3.0% ▼vs his ~10.9% career norm
  • Strikeout %18.3%—−1.7% ▼vs his ~20.0% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 4.95 +0.85 vs league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed39.6%
39.6%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−0.4%vs his norm —
444 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.3%
8.3%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.3%vs his norm —
444 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.340
.340*
lg avg .315 ▲+.025vs his norm —
633 / 200 TBF
xERA4.95
4.95*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.85vs his norm —
633 / 200 TBF
ERA4.47
4.47*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.37vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
141 / 200 IP
Strikeout %18.3%
norm18.3%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−3.7%vs his norm −1.7% ▼
633 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.9%
norm7.9%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.1%vs his norm −3.0% ▼
633 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.292
.292*
lg avg .295 ▼−.003vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
444 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.9%
10.9%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.1%vs his norm —
633 / 60 TBF
Chase %32.8%
32.8%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+4.3%vs his norm —
633 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo95.8 mph
95.8 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+1.8 mphvs his norm —
2516 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 18.3%→18.7%signal9 K — K% 18.3% (signal) lifted to career ~20.0% → projected 18.7% over ~12 remaining IP.
xERA 4.95signal4.65 ERA — xERA 4.95 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 57 IP.
BB% 7.9% + contactsignal1.36 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.293 gives a 1.39 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role1-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop9 K ROS, 4.65 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

Tweet
Compare with

Comparisons

head-to-head matchups