week 17
this weekSELL
last weekSELL
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %17.6%—−2.4% ▼vs his ~20.0% career norm
- Walk %8.7%—−2.2% ▼vs his ~10.9% career norm
Drivers
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 5.20 +1.10 vs league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed38.8%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−1.2%vs his norm —
281 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.2%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.2%vs his norm —
281 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.349
lg avg .315 ▲+.034vs his norm —
403 / 200 TBF
xERA5.20
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.10vs his norm —
403 / 200 TBF
ERA4.23
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.13vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
89.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %17.6%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−4.4%vs his norm −2.4% ▼
403 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.7%vs his norm −2.2% ▼
403 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.287
lg avg .295 ▼−.008vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
281 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.2%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.8%vs his norm —
403 / 60 TBF
Chase %31.9%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+3.4%vs his norm —
403 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo95.8 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+1.8 mphvs his norm —
1635 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 17.6%→18.4%signal42 K — K% 17.6% (signal) lifted to career ~20.0% → projected 18.4% over ~55 remaining IP.
xERA 5.20signal4.82 ERA — xERA 5.20 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 57 IP.
BB% 8.7% + contactsignal1.39 WHIP — a 9% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.292 gives a 1.44 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role3-7 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop42 K ROS, 4.82 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.