week 10
this weekSELL
last weekSELL
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Anthony Kay
data as of June 3, 2026·week 10
Kay is a sell — skill below league with no luck mask.
His expected ERA is 5.66, a full run and a half above league average, and the sample is large enough to trust. There is no luck story to blame. His strikeout rate is 16.3%, well below the league 22%, while his walk rate is 9.3%, above average. Batters make hard contact 42.9% of the time against him, and barrel 9.9% of batted balls, both above league norms. His expected wOBA allowed is .368, 53 points above league, and his xERA has been rising steadily. This is not a case where the box score lags the skill — the skill itself is below average and the results reflect it. Sell.
Sell
high0.90
Drivers
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 5.66 +1.56 vs league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed42.9%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+2.9%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL182 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed9.9%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.9%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL182 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.368
lg avg .315 ▲+.053trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL258 / 200 TBF
xERA5.66
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.56trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL258 / 200 TBF
ERA3.77
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.33too early to trust
NOISE57.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %16.3%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−5.7%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL258 / 70 TBF
Walk %9.3%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.3%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL258 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.277
lg avg .295 ▼−.018too early to trust
NOISE182 / 800 BIP