MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Anthony Kay
week 31
this weekSELL
last weekSELL

Anthony Kay

CWS·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Sell stable xERA 5.05 +0.95 vs league with no luck excuse; move on.high 0.83
ROSK 0ERA 4.72WHIP 1.37W 0–0SV 0

Kay is a sell — the expected numbers say the skill isn't there.

His expected ERA is 5.05, nearly a full run above the league average of 4.10, and he has faced 710 batters — well past the point where that number becomes reliable. There is no luck story to explain it away: his BABIP-against is not suppressing or inflating anything, and his walk rate of 7.9% sits right at league average, so the contact damage is not being handed out for free. The real problem is that he does not miss enough bats. He strikes out 18.2% of batters against a league average of 22.0%, even with a solid 11.1% swinging-strike rate — a gap that points to hitters making contact when he gets ahead. His xERA has been climbing across the sample, which makes the trend worse, not better. The line is what it is. Sell. A 0 K / 4.72 ERA / 1.37 WHIP line is waiver fringe — drop, not stash, in any size league.

VS His Norm

  • Walk %7.9%—−3.0% ▼vs his ~10.9% career norm
  • Strikeout %18.2%—−1.8% ▼vs his ~20.0% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 5.05 +0.95 vs league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed38.9%
38.9%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−1.1%vs his norm —
499 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.0%
8.0%*
lg avg 8.0% 0.0%vs his norm —
499 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.342
.342*
lg avg .315 ▲+.027vs his norm —
710 / 200 TBF
xERA5.05
5.05*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.95vs his norm —
710 / 200 TBF
ERA4.44
4.44*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.34vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
158 / 200 IP
Strikeout %18.2%
norm18.2%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−3.8%vs his norm −1.8% ▼
710 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.9%
norm7.9%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.1%vs his norm −3.0% ▼
710 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.297
.297*
lg avg .295 ▲+.002vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
499 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.1%
11.1%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.1%vs his norm —
710 / 60 TBF
Chase %33.0%
33.0%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+4.5%vs his norm —
710 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo95.9 mph
95.9 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+1.9 mphvs his norm —
2788 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 18.2%→18.6%signal0 K — K% 18.2% (signal) lifted to career ~20.0% → projected 18.6% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 5.05signal4.72 ERA — xERA 5.05 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 57 IP.
BB% 7.9% + contactsignal1.37 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.296 gives a 1.41 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop0 K ROS, 4.72 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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