MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
week 25
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH

Tyler Schweitzer

CWS·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
Sell High strikeout rate 12% is stable and well below league, limits the ceiling — BABIP-against 0.274 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; luck-free xERA 5.32 is 2.26 above the ERA, regression coming; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.95
ROSK 1ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0

Schweitzer is a sell-high — the ERA is hiding weak skill.

His ERA sits at 3.06, but his BABIP-against is .274, below the .295 league average. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable; he has 117, so that gap is luck, not skill. The luck-free number is his expected ERA of 5.32 — two and a quarter runs above what the scoreboard shows — and that is the regression waiting to land. The reason there is no floor underneath him is his strikeout rate: 11.6% against a 22% league average, stable now and stepping down across the season. He allows hard contact at 47% and barrels at 8.5%, both above league. The surface is flattering the skill. Sell high. Trade the 3.70 ERA / 1.24 WHIP before expected-ERA regression lands — a deep-league sell-high window, not a hold.

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.274 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
  • xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 5.32 is 2.26 above the ERA — regression coming
  • p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 12% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed47.0%
47.0%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+7.0%vs his norm —
117 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.5%
8.5%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.5%vs his norm —
117 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.351
.351*
lg avg .315 ▲+.036vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
146 / 200 TBF
xERA5.32
5.32*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.22vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
146 / 200 TBF
ERA3.06
3.06*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.04vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
35.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %11.6%
11.6%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−10.4%vs his norm —
146 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.2%
8.2%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.2%vs his norm —Walk % is above the ~8.0% league average — expect it to fall.
146 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.274
.274*
lg avg .295 ▼−.021vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
117 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.3%
11.3%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.3%vs his norm —
146 / 60 TBF
Chase %29.4%
29.4%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+0.9%vs his norm —
146 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.0 mph
94.0 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph 0.0 mphvs his norm —
540 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 11.6%→14.1%signal1 K — K% 11.6% (signal) lifted to RP mean ~24.0% → projected 14.1% over ~4 remaining IP.
xERA 5.32noise3.70 ERA — xERA 5.32 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 4 IP.
BB% 8.2% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.292 gives a 1.53 skill WHIP, blended 0%…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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