week 25
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Luis Gil
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
Hold · wait & see strikeout rate 13% is stable and well below league, limits the ceiling — skill near league average (6.14); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 8ERA 4.10WHIP 1.30W 0–1SV 0
Gil is a hold — league average, and the strikeouts have vanished.
ROS projects K 9 YTD → 8 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %12.6%—−11.1% ▼vs his ~23.7% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (6.14)
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 13% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed46.3%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+6.3%vs his norm —
67 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed9.0%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.0%vs his norm —
67 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.373
lg avg .315 ▲+.058vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
95 / 200 TBF
xERA6.14
lg avg 4.10 ▲+2.04vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
95 / 200 TBF
ERA5.91
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.81vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
21.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %12.6%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−9.4%vs his norm −11.1% ▼
95 / 70 TBF
Walk %12.6%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+4.6%vs his norm −0.1% ▼Walk % is below his ~12.8% norm — expect it to rise.
95 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.164
lg avg .295 ▼−.131vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
67 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %8.0%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−3.0%vs his norm —
95 / 60 TBF
Chase %24.2%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−4.3%vs his norm —
95 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo95.2 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+1.2 mphvs his norm —
376 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 12.6%→20.1%signal8 K — K% 12.6% (signal) lifted to career ~23.7% → projected 20.1% over ~11 remaining IP.
xERA 6.14noise4.10 ERA — xERA 6.14 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 4.10 at 19 IP.
BB% 12.6% + contactnoise1.30 WHIP — a 13% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.284 gives a 1.68 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role0-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop8 K ROS, 4.10 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.