MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
week 31
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH

Luis Gil

NYY·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Sell High strikeout rate 14% is stable and well below league, limits the ceiling — BABIP-against 0.190 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; luck-free xERA 5.77 is 1.16 above the ERA, regression coming; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.95
ROSK 0ERA 4.10WHIP 1.30W 0–0SV 0

Gil is a sell-high — his ERA hides a 5.77 expected mark

His strikeout rate is the honest number here: 13.7%, well below the 22% league average, and it is stable. That is not who he has been — his career line sits at 23.7% — and the trajectory is stepping down as the sample grows. Pitchers who miss this few bats do not sustain low run prevention, and the 4.61 ERA is the part that will move, not the 13.7%. The number holding that ERA down is his BABIP-against: .190 against a league average of .295, which needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable and he has 85. That gap is luck, not skill. His expected ERA is 5.77, more than a run above what the scoreboard shows. Sell high. The 5x5 line reads 0 K / 4.10 ERA / 1.30 WHIP — a drop, streaming-only arm, so sell the inflated name before regression lands.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %13.7%—−10.0% ▼vs his ~23.7% career norm

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.190 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
  • xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 5.77 is 1.16 above the ERA — regression coming
  • p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 14% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed47.1%
47.1%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+7.1%vs his norm —
85 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.1%
7.1%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.9%vs his norm —
85 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.362
.362*
lg avg .315 ▲+.047vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
124 / 200 TBF
xERA5.77
5.77*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.67vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
124 / 200 TBF
ERA4.61
4.61*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.51vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
27.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %13.7%
norm13.7%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−8.3%vs his norm −10.0% ▼
124 / 70 TBF
Walk %14.5%
norm14.5%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+6.5%vs his norm +1.8% ▲Walk % is above his ~12.8% norm — expect it to fall.
124 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.190
.190*
lg avg .295 ▼−.105vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
85 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %8.1%
8.1%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−2.9%vs his norm —
124 / 60 TBF
Chase %24.4%
24.4%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−4.1%vs his norm —
124 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo95.3 mph
95.3 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+1.3 mphvs his norm —
496 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 13.7%→19.9%signal0 K — K% 13.7% (signal) lifted to career ~23.7% → projected 19.9% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 5.77noise4.10 ERA — xERA 5.77 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 4.10 at 19 IP.
BB% 14.5% + contactnoise1.30 WHIP — a 14% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.284 gives a 1.75 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop0 K ROS, 4.10 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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