MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
week 31
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD

Travis Adams

MIN·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Hold · steady skill near league average (4.18); hold steady — skill tracks near league, no edge either way.med 0.60
ROSK 0ERA 4.01WHIP 1.33W 0–0SV 0–0

Adams is a hold — league average, nothing unstable in the profile

His expected ERA is 4.18, barely off the league average of 4.10, and he has faced 247 batters — past the 200 needed to trust that number. His expected wOBA allowed is .314 against a .315 league mark, so the contact he gives up is exactly what an average arm gives up. His strikeout rate of 25.1% is above league, and that part of the profile is real at this sample, but his walk rate of 10.1% runs two points high and keeps the whole thing pinned near average. The one trend worth tracking is his expected ERA stepping up as the sample grows, which points the wrong way rather than toward a buy. This is a pitcher pitching to his level, and there is no luck stat inflating or deflating the line. Hold. A 4.01 ERA and 1.33 WHIP with 0 K is replacement-level filler — streaming-only, deep-league filler, not a hold worth your roster spot.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %25.1%—+4.5% ▲vs his ~20.6% career norm
  • Walk %10.1%—−0.2% ▼vs his ~10.3% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALskill near league average (4.18)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed33.1%
33.1%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−6.9%vs his norm —
160 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.3%
6.3%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.7%vs his norm —
160 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.314
.314*
lg avg .315 ▼−.001vs his norm —
247 / 200 TBF
xERA4.18
4.18*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.08vs his norm —
247 / 200 TBF
ERA4.58
4.58*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.48vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
59 / 200 IP
Strikeout %25.1%
norm25.1%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+3.1%vs his norm +4.5% ▲
247 / 70 TBF
Walk %10.1%
norm10.1%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.1%vs his norm −0.2% ▼
247 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.298
.298*
lg avg .295 ▲+.003vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
160 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %13.3%
13.3%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+2.3%vs his norm —
247 / 60 TBF
Chase %32.9%
32.9%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+4.4%vs his norm —
247 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.4 mph
94.4 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.4 mphvs his norm —
950 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 25.1%→23.1%signal0 K — K% 25.1% (signal) tempered to career ~20.6% → projected 23.1% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 4.18signal4.01 ERA — xERA 4.18 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 3.70 at 11 IP.
BB% 10.1% + contactsignal1.33 WHIP — a 10% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.296 gives a 1.38 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0-0 SV — role: middle, in the save mix only situationally.
rosterdrop4.01 ERA, 1.33 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

Tweet
Compare with

Comparisons

head-to-head matchups