week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Travis Adams
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Hold · wait & see BABIP-against 0.333 elevated and unstable, the 6.20 ERA overstates the damage; but luck-free xERA 4.42 is +0.32 vs league, the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy; hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.55 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 20ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 1–3SV 1–3
Adams is a hold — the ERA is misleading but the skill is still below league.
ROS projects K 13 YTD → 20 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %28.8%—+8.2% ▲vs his ~20.6% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.333 elevated and unstable — the 6.20 ERA overstates the damage
- xeraNOISEbut luck-free xERA 4.42 is +0.32 vs league — the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed28.8%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−11.2%vs his norm —
66 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed9.1%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.1%vs his norm —
66 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.325
lg avg .315 ▲+.010vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
111 / 200 TBF
xERA4.42
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.32vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
111 / 200 TBF
ERA6.20
lg avg 4.10 ▲+2.10vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
24.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %28.8%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+6.8%vs his norm +8.2% ▲
111 / 70 TBF
Walk %11.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.7%vs his norm +1.4% ▲Walk % is above his ~10.3% norm — expect it to fall.
111 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.333
lg avg .295 ▲+.038vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
66 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %14.1%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+3.1%vs his norm —
111 / 60 TBF
Chase %31.5%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+3.0%vs his norm —
111 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.2 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.2 mphvs his norm —
440 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 28.8%→23.5%signal20 K — K% 28.8% (signal) tempered to career ~20.6% → projected 23.5% over ~21 remaining…
xERA 4.42noise3.70 ERA — xERA 4.42 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 11 IP.
BB% 11.7% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 12% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.298 gives a 1.39 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role1-3 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)1-3 SV — role: middle, in the save mix only situationally.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.