Walker Buehler
Buehler is a hold — league average all the way down the line.
His expected ERA is 4.14, a hair from the league average of 4.10, and the sample behind it — 576 batters faced — is well past the point where that number becomes reliable. Everything else lines up with it. His expected wOBA allowed is .314 against a league average of .315. His hard-hit rate allowed is 38.6%, slightly better than league, and his barrel rate allowed is 8.2%, essentially league. He strikes out 20.3% of batters, just under league, and walks 8.9%, just over it. The one note worth tracking is trajectory: his xERA has been stepping up across the sample, so this is a stable league-average pitcher rather than one trending the right direction. There is no luck story propping the line up or dragging it down. Hold. With just 10 K and a 4.13 ERA ROS, he's a fringe streaming-only arm — hold only if you're stuck, otherwise drop.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %20.3%—−3.8% ▼vs his ~24.1% career norm
- Walk %8.9%—+1.6% ▲vs his ~7.3% career norm
Drivers
- xeraSIGNALskill near league average (4.14)
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.