week 18
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekNO CALL
Jacob Waguespack
data as of July 29, 2026·week 18
new call as of July 29, 2026
Sell High BABIP-against 0.125 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; luck-free xERA 2.60 is 1.13 above the ERA, regression coming; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.95 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 14ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0
Waguespack is a sell-high — BABIP luck alone holds that ERA.
Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %18.1%—−0.8% ▼vs his ~18.9% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.125 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 2.60 is 1.13 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed32.7%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−7.3%vs his norm —
52 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed3.8%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−4.2%vs his norm —Barrel % Allowed is below the ~8.0% league average — expect it to rise.
52 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.251
lg avg .315 ▼−.064vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
72 / 200 TBF
xERA2.60
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.50vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
72 / 200 TBF
ERA1.47
lg avg 4.10 ▼−2.63vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
18.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %18.1%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−3.9%vs his norm −0.8% ▼
72 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.3%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.3%vs his norm −1.9% ▼Walk % is below his ~10.2% norm — expect it to rise.
72 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.125
lg avg .295 ▼−.170vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
52 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %14.2%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+3.2%vs his norm —
72 / 60 TBF
Chase %31.9%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+3.4%vs his norm —
72 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo92.9 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−1.1 mphvs his norm —
267 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 18.1%→18.7%signal14 K — K% 18.1% (signal) lifted to career ~18.9% → projected 18.7% over ~14 remaining IP.
xERA 2.60noise3.70 ERA — xERA 2.60 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 1 IP.
BB% 8.3% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.284 gives a 1.37 skill WHIP, blended 0%…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.