MLB Daily DeltaWeek 27 · September 27, 2026
week 27
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH

Jacob Waguespack

DET·P
data as of September 27, 2026·week 27
Sell High BABIP-against 0.148 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; luck-free xERA 2.99 is 0.43 above the ERA, regression coming; sell into the hype before regression.med 0.72
ROSK 0WHIP 1.24ERA 3.70W 0–0SV 0

Waguespack is a sell-high — the low ERA rests on luck.

His ERA is 2.56, but the number underneath it is what is keeping runs off the board, and that number will not hold. His BABIP-against is .148 against a league average of .295. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable, and he has 124. That gap is luck, not skill. His expected ERA is 2.99, which is .43 runs above what the box score shows. He strikes out 18.6% of batters, below league average, so he is not missing enough bats to survive when those balls in play start falling in. His walk rate is 10.2%, above league average. There is no reliable anchor here yet — no baseline, no trend to lean on — but the ERA is being flattered by the one stat that cannot be trusted. Sell high. Regression to a 3.70 ERA and 1.24 WHIP makes this a deep-league sell — move him before the inflated line corrects.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %18.6%—−0.3% ▼vs his ~18.9% career norm
  • Walk %10.2%—+0.0% ▲vs his ~10.2% career norm

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.148 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
  • xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 2.99 is 0.43 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed28.2%
28.2%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−11.8%vs his norm —
124 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed4.0%
4.0%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−4.0%vs his norm —
124 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.268
.268*
lg avg .315 ▼−.047vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
177 / 200 TBF
xERA2.99
2.99*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.11vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
177 / 200 TBF
ERA2.56
2.56*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.54vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
45.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %18.6%
norm18.6%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−3.4%vs his norm −0.3% ▼
177 / 70 TBF
Walk %10.2%
norm10.2%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.2%vs his norm +0.0% ▲
177 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.148
.148*
lg avg .295 ▼−.147vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
124 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.9%
11.9%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.9%vs his norm —
177 / 60 TBF
Chase %27.7%
27.7%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−0.8%vs his norm —
177 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo92.9 mph
92.9 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−1.1 mphvs his norm —
648 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 18.6%→18.8%signal0 K — K% 18.6% (signal) held to career ~18.9% → projected 18.8% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 2.99noise3.70 ERA — xERA 2.99 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 1 IP.
BB% 10.2% + contactsignal1.24 WHIP — a 10% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.272 gives a 1.40 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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