week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Ryan Thompson
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (3.48); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 13ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 1–3SV 0
Thompson is a hold — league average, stable, no edge.
ROS projects K 12 YTD → 13 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %17.7%—−2.7% ▼vs his ~20.4% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (3.48)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed33.9%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−6.1%vs his norm —
109 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed3.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−4.3%vs his norm —
109 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.291
lg avg .315 ▼−.024vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
147 / 200 TBF
xERA3.48
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.62vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
147 / 200 TBF
ERA2.88
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.22vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
34.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %17.7%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−4.3%vs his norm −2.7% ▼
147 / 70 TBF
Walk %6.1%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.9%vs his norm −0.5% ▼Walk % is below his ~6.6% norm — expect it to rise.
147 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.302
lg avg .295 ▲+.007vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
109 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %9.9%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.1%vs his norm —
147 / 60 TBF
Chase %36.2%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+7.7%vs his norm —
147 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo91.0 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−3.0 mphvs his norm —
513 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 17.7%→19.3%signal13 K — K% 17.7% (signal) lifted to career ~20.4% → projected 19.3% over ~20 remaining IP.
xERA 3.48noise3.70 ERA — xERA 3.48 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 20 IP.
BB% 6.1% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 6% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.296 gives a 1.34 skill WHIP, blended 0%…
run support + role1-3 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0 SV — role: setup, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.