MLB Daily DeltaWeek 10 · June 3, 2026
Engraved portrait of Ryan Thompson
week 10
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekHOLD
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Ryan Thompson

AZ·P
data as of June 3, 2026·week 10

Thompson is a sell-high — BABIP-driven ERA masks real skill gap.

Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.

Sell High
high0.79

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.237 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
  • xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.35 is 0.60 above the ERA — regression coming
  • p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 15% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed31.1%
31.1%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−8.9%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL61 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed4.9%
4.9%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−3.1%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL61 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.291
.291
lg avg .315 ▼−.024too early to trust
NOISE81 / 200 TBF
xERA3.35
3.35
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.75too early to trust
NOISE81 / 200 TBF
ERA2.75
2.75
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.35too early to trust
NOISE19.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %14.8%
14.8%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−7.2%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL81 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.6%
8.6%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.6%too early to trust
NOISE81 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.237
.237
lg avg .295 ▼−.058too early to trust
NOISE61 / 800 BIP