week 25
this weekBUY-LOW
last weekHOLD
Ryan Thompson
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
ON THE 60-DAY IL
flipped from HOLD
Buy Low fastball velocity stable and above league, the arm is fine; strikeout rate 16% is stable and well below league, limits the ceiling — luck-free xERA 4.06 sits 0.04 below league, a real arm the ERA is hiding; BABIP-against 0.350 elevated and unstable, bloating the ERA; buy the player, not the number.med 0.71 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 3WHIP 1.24ERA 3.70W 0–1SV 0
Thompson is a buy-low — the ERA is BABIP noise, not the arm.
ERA ugly, but the skill it regresses to is league-or-better and the BABIP-against is unsustainable. Buy low.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %15.6%—−4.8% ▼vs his ~20.4% career norm
- Walk %7.0%—+0.4% ▲vs his ~6.6% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 4.06 sits 0.04 below league — a real arm the ERA is hiding
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.350 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
- p_fastball_veloSIGNALfastball velocity stable and above league — the arm is fine
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 16% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed34.0%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−6.0%vs his norm —
141 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed4.3%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−3.7%vs his norm —
141 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.311
lg avg .315 ▼−.004vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
186 / 200 TBF
xERA4.06
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.04vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
186 / 200 TBF
ERA4.43
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.33vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
40.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %15.6%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−6.4%vs his norm −4.8% ▼
186 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.0%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.0%vs his norm +0.4% ▲
186 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.350
lg avg .295 ▲+.055vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
141 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %9.3%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.7%vs his norm —
186 / 60 TBF
Chase %35.9%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+7.4%vs his norm —
186 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo91.3 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−2.7 mphvs his norm —
654 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 15.6%→18.1%signal3 K — K% 15.6% (signal) lifted to career ~20.4% → projected 18.1% over ~4 remaining IP.
xERA 4.06noise3.70 ERA — xERA 4.06 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 20 IP.
BB% 7.0% + contactsignal1.24 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.305 gives a 1.46 skill WHIP, blended 0%…
run support + role0-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0 SV — role: setup, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.