week 25
this weekHOLD
last week—
Gage Jump
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
Hold · leans sell but luck-free xERA 4.50 is +0.40 vs league, the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy — BABIP-against 0.341 elevated and unstable, the 5.12 ERA overstates the damage; a hold that leans sell — skill sits a hair below league, nothing to chase.med 0.60 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 10ERA 4.36WHIP 1.41W 0–0SV 0
Jump is a hold — the ERA is luck, the skill is still short
ROS projects K 5 YTD → 10 ROS, ERA 7.20 YTD → 4.36 ROS, WHIP 2.00 YTD → 1.41 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.341 elevated and unstable — the 5.12 ERA overstates the damage
- xeraSIGNALbut luck-free xERA 4.50 is +0.40 vs league — the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed39.5%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−0.5%vs his norm —
271 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.6%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.4%vs his norm —
271 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.326
lg avg .315 ▲+.011vs his norm —
425 / 200 TBF
xERA4.50
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.40vs his norm —
425 / 200 TBF
ERA5.12
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.02vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
96.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %24.9%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+2.9%vs his norm —
425 / 70 TBF
Walk %10.6%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.6%vs his norm —
425 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.341
lg avg .295 ▲+.046vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
271 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.4%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.4%vs his norm —
425 / 60 TBF
Chase %30.5%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+2.0%vs his norm —
425 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo96.3 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+2.3 mphvs his norm —
1712 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 24.9%→24.3%signal10 K — K% 24.9% (signal) tempered to SP mean ~22.0% → projected 24.3% over ~10 remainin…
xERA 4.50signal4.36 ERA — xERA 4.50 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 5 IP.
BB% 10.6% + contactsignal1.41 WHIP — a 11% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.311 gives a 1.46 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop10 K ROS, 4.36 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.