MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 18, 2026
Engraved portrait of A.J. Minter
week 17
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH

A.J. Minter

NYM·P
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Sell High BABIP-against 0.245 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; luck-free xERA 2.82 is 1.40 above the ERA, regression coming; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.95
ROSK 39ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0

Minter is a sell-high — BABIP luck is inflating his ERA.

His ERA is 1.42, but the number holding it down is his BABIP-against of .245, well below the league average of .295. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable; he has 55. That gap is luck, not skill. Strip out the noise and his expected ERA is 2.82 — nearly a run and a half higher than the box score shows. His strikeout and whiff rates are slightly above league average, and his hard-hit rate allowed is below league, so there is some real skill here. But the ERA has significant luck baked in, and the xERA says regression is coming in a way that outweighs the reliable skill indicators. Sell high. 39 K with a 3.70 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in a deep-league trade window — sell into the inflated line before regression.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %23.3%—−6.2% ▼vs his ~29.5% career norm

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.245 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
  • xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 2.82 is 1.40 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed36.4%
36.4%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−3.6%vs his norm —
55 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed9.1%
9.1%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.1%vs his norm —Barrel % Allowed is above the ~8.0% league average — expect it to fall.
55 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.263
.263*
lg avg .315 ▼−.052vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
73 / 200 TBF
xERA2.82
2.82*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.28vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
73 / 200 TBF
ERA1.42
1.42*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−2.68vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
19 / 200 IP
Strikeout %23.3%
norm23.3%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+1.3%vs his norm −6.2% ▼
73 / 70 TBF
Walk %1.4%
norm1.4%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−6.6%vs his norm −7.2% ▼Walk % is below his ~8.6% norm — expect it to rise.
73 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.245
.245*
lg avg .295 ▼−.050vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
55 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %13.9%
13.9%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+2.9%vs his norm —
73 / 60 TBF
Chase %34.4%
34.4%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+5.9%vs his norm —
73 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo92.9 mph
92.9 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−1.1 mphvs his norm —
274 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 23.3%→27.8%signal39 K — K% 23.3% (signal) lifted to career ~29.5% → projected 27.8% over ~15 remaining IP.
xERA 2.82noise3.70 ERA — xERA 2.82 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 2 IP.
BB% 1.4% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 1% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.292 gives a 1.04 skill WHIP, blended 0%…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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