MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of A.J. Minter
week 31
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH

A.J. Minter

MIN·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Sell High BABIP-against 0.246 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; luck-free xERA 3.84 is 1.28 above the ERA, regression coming; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.95
ROSK 0WHIP 1.24ERA 3.70W 0–0SV 0

Minter is a sell-high — his 2.56 ERA is BABIP-against luck

His BABIP-against is .246, 49 points below the league average of .295, and that gap is the whole story behind a 2.56 ERA. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable; he has 136. His expected ERA is 3.84 — 1.28 runs above the surface line — and that is the regression sitting in the data. The walk rate is genuinely good at 4.3%, half the league average, and his swinging-strike rate of 12.3% is a hair above league, so there is real command here. But the strikeout rate is dead-on league at 22.0%, and he allows barrels at 10.3%, above league — this is not a pitcher who misses enough bats to carry a low BABIP-against forever. The run prevention will drift back toward the expected number. Sell high. 0 K / 3.70 ERA / 1.24 WHIP going forward is deep-league filler, not a hold — take the trade window while it's open.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %22.0%—−7.5% ▼vs his ~29.5% career norm
  • Walk %4.3%—−4.3% ▼vs his ~8.6% career norm

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.246 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
  • xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.84 is 1.28 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed36.8%
36.8%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−3.2%vs his norm —
136 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed10.3%
10.3%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.3%vs his norm —
136 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.302
.302*
lg avg .315 ▼−.013vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
186 / 200 TBF
xERA3.84
3.84*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.26vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
186 / 200 TBF
ERA2.56
2.56*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.54vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
45.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %22.0%
norm22.0%*
lg avg 22.0% 0.0%vs his norm −7.5% ▼
186 / 70 TBF
Walk %4.3%
norm4.3%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−3.7%vs his norm −4.3% ▼
186 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.246
.246*
lg avg .295 ▼−.049vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
136 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.3%
12.3%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.3%vs his norm —
186 / 60 TBF
Chase %31.1%
31.1%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+2.6%vs his norm —
186 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo93.5 mph
93.5 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−0.5 mphvs his norm —
677 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 22.0%→25.9%signal0 K — K% 22.0% (signal) lifted to career ~29.5% → projected 25.9% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 3.84noise3.70 ERA — xERA 3.84 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 2 IP.
BB% 4.3% + contactsignal1.24 WHIP — a 4% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.287 gives a 1.15 skill WHIP, blended 0%…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

Tweet
Compare with

Comparisons

head-to-head matchups