MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of A.J. Minter
week 25
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH

A.J. Minter

MIN·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
Sell High BABIP-against 0.233 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; luck-free xERA 3.24 is 1.58 above the ERA, regression coming; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.95
ROSK 9ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0

Minter is a sell-high — his ERA is built on a lucky BABIP.

His ERA sits at 1.66, and a surface line that low points straight at the number holding it down: his BABIP-against is .233 against a league average of .295. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable, and he has 109, so that gap is luck, not skill. His expected ERA of 3.24 is 1.58 higher than the actual mark, and that difference is the regression headed his way. The stuff is not loud in the wrong direction: he strikes out 22% of batters, exactly league average, and his swinging-strike and chase rates are mildly above league. There is no dominant-stuff story to save the ERA. The scoreboard says 1.66; the underlying numbers do not. Sell high. Sell before the ROS line settles at 9 K, 3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP — deep-league hold only, not a 5x5 asset.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %22.0%—−7.5% ▼vs his ~29.5% career norm

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.233 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
  • xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.24 is 1.58 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed33.9%
33.9%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−6.1%vs his norm —
109 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.3%
8.3%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.3%vs his norm —
109 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.280
.280*
lg avg .315 ▼−.035vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
150 / 200 TBF
xERA3.24
3.24*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.86vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
150 / 200 TBF
ERA1.66
1.66*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−2.44vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
38 / 200 IP
Strikeout %22.0%
norm22.0%*
lg avg 22.0% 0.0%vs his norm −7.5% ▼
150 / 70 TBF
Walk %4.7%
norm4.7%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−3.3%vs his norm −3.9% ▼Walk % is below his ~8.6% norm — expect it to rise.
150 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.233
.233*
lg avg .295 ▼−.062vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
109 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.7%
12.7%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.7%vs his norm —
150 / 60 TBF
Chase %32.6%
32.6%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+4.1%vs his norm —
150 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo93.4 mph
93.4 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−0.6 mphvs his norm —
557 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 22.0%→26.3%signal9 K — K% 22.0% (signal) lifted to career ~29.5% → projected 26.3% over ~4 remaining IP.
xERA 3.24noise3.70 ERA — xERA 3.24 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 2 IP.
BB% 4.7% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 5% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.286 gives a 1.17 skill WHIP, blended 0%…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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