week 25
this weekHOLD
last weekNO CALL
Shawn Armstrong
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
ON THE 60-DAY IL
new call
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (3.97); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 6ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0
Armstrong is a hold — league average, nothing unstable in the mix.
ROS projects K 19 YTD → 6 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %22.6%—−1.9% ▼vs his ~24.4% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (3.97)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed34.8%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−5.2%vs his norm —
92 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.5%vs his norm —
92 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.308
lg avg .315 ▼−.007vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
146 / 200 TBF
xERA3.97
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.13vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
146 / 200 TBF
ERA4.91
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.81vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
33 / 200 IP
Strikeout %22.6%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+0.6%vs his norm −1.9% ▼
146 / 70 TBF
Walk %13.0%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+5.0%vs his norm +5.0% ▲Walk % is above his ~8.0% norm — expect it to fall.
146 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.287
lg avg .295 ▼−.008vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
92 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.7%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.7%vs his norm —
146 / 60 TBF
Chase %24.0%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−4.5%vs his norm —
146 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo93.5 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−0.5 mphvs his norm —
597 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 22.6%→23.7%signal6 K — K% 22.6% (signal) lifted to career ~24.4% → projected 23.7% over ~4 remaining IP.
xERA 3.97noise3.70 ERA — xERA 3.97 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 15 IP.
BB% 13.0% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 13% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.294 gives a 1.55 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0 SV — role: setup, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.