week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekNO CALL
Shawn Armstrong
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
new call as of July 18, 2026
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (3.99); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 26ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 1–2SV 0
Armstrong is a hold — league-average across the board, no edge.
ROS projects K 19 YTD → 26 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %21.7%—−2.8% ▼vs his ~24.4% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (3.99)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed37.3%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−2.7%vs his norm —
83 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.2%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.8%vs his norm —
83 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.310
lg avg .315 ▼−.005vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
129 / 200 TBF
xERA3.99
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.11vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
129 / 200 TBF
ERA4.55
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.45vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
29.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %21.7%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−0.3%vs his norm −2.8% ▼
129 / 70 TBF
Walk %12.4%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+4.4%vs his norm +4.4% ▲Walk % is above his ~8.0% norm — expect it to fall.
129 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.269
lg avg .295 ▼−.026vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
83 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.7%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.7%vs his norm —
129 / 60 TBF
Chase %23.7%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−4.8%vs his norm —
129 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo93.6 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−0.4 mphvs his norm —
528 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 21.7%→23.4%signal26 K — K% 21.7% (signal) lifted to career ~24.4% → projected 23.4% over ~19 remaining IP.
xERA 3.99noise3.70 ERA — xERA 3.99 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 15 IP.
BB% 12.4% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 12% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.292 gives a 1.53 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role1-2 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0 SV — role: setup, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.