week 31
this weekHOLD
last weekNO CALL
Shawn Armstrong
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
new call as of October 26, 2026
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (4.21); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0
Armstrong is a hold — league average across the board, nothing unstable.
ROS projects K 19 YTD → 0 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %22.1%—−2.4% ▼vs his ~24.4% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (4.21)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed35.4%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−4.6%vs his norm —
99 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.1%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.9%vs his norm —
99 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.315
lg avg .315 .000vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
154 / 200 TBF
xERA4.21
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.11vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
154 / 200 TBF
ERA4.58
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.48vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
35.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %22.1%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+0.1%vs his norm −2.4% ▼
154 / 70 TBF
Walk %12.3%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+4.3%vs his norm +4.3% ▲Walk % is above his ~8.0% norm — expect it to fall.
154 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.277
lg avg .295 ▼−.018vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
99 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.6%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.6%vs his norm —
154 / 60 TBF
Chase %24.2%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−4.3%vs his norm —
154 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo93.5 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−0.5 mphvs his norm —
628 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 22.1%→23.4%signal0 K — K% 22.1% (signal) lifted to career ~24.4% → projected 23.4% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 4.21noise3.70 ERA — xERA 4.21 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 15 IP.
BB% 12.3% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 12% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.293 gives a 1.52 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0 SV — role: setup, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.