MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Stephen Kolek
week 31
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD

Stephen Kolek

KC·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
ON THE 60-DAY IL
Hold · leans buy skill near league average (3.87); strikeout rate 15% is stable and well below league, limits the ceiling; a hold that leans buy — skill sits a hair above league, worth watching.med 0.60
ROSK 0ERA 3.87WHIP 1.32W 0–0SV 0

Kolek is a hold — league-average, and the strikeouts cap the upside.

His expected wOBA allowed is .303, twelve points under a league average of .315, and his expected ERA of 3.87 sits right around the league's 4.10. Nothing there is lucky and nothing there is broken. The reason this is a hold and not a buy is the strikeouts: he's fanning just 15.2% of batters against a 22% league mark, and that rate is stable. It's also stepping down from his 17.0% career baseline, and the expected ERA has been moving the same direction through the sample. He limits hard contact — 36.9% hard-hit against 40% league, 6.8% barrels against 8.0% — so he keeps the ball in the park. He won't blow up, and he won't miss enough bats to push the expected ERA any lower than the average it already is. Hold. 0 K and 0 SV on the ROS line means streaming-only, drop-tier; hold the status quo only because there's no add worth chasing.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %15.2%—−1.8% ▼vs his ~17.0% career norm
  • Walk %5.4%—−0.8% ▼vs his ~6.2% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALskill near league average (3.87)
  • p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 15% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed36.9%
36.9%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−3.1%vs his norm —
176 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.8%
6.8%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.2%vs his norm —
176 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.303
.303*
lg avg .315 ▼−.012vs his norm —
224 / 200 TBF
xERA3.87
3.87*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.23vs his norm —
224 / 200 TBF
ERA4.50
4.50*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.40vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
54 / 200 IP
Strikeout %15.2%
norm15.2%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−6.8%vs his norm −1.8% ▼
224 / 70 TBF
Walk %5.4%
norm5.4%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.6%vs his norm −0.8% ▼
224 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.280
.280*
lg avg .295 ▼−.015vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
176 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %9.6%
9.6%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.4%vs his norm —
224 / 60 TBF
Chase %26.7%
26.7%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−1.8%vs his norm —
224 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.2 mph
94.2 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.2 mphvs his norm —
837 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 15.2%→16.1%signal0 K — K% 15.2% (signal) lifted to career ~17.0% → projected 16.1% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 3.87signal3.87 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.87 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 5.4% + contactsignal1.32 WHIP — a 5% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.292 gives a 1.33 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop0 K ROS, 3.87 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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