Rest of Season Projection
SpencerCategoryStephen
87K ←50
4.54ERA →4.03
1.44WHIP →1.30
9–19W ←5–11
0SV0
Current Season
SpencerCategoryStephen
43K ←19
1.34ERA ←3.48
1.13WHIP →0.94
7W ←3
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Spencer Arrighetti
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.234 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 4.77 is 2.56 above the ERA — regression coming
Stephen Kolek
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (3.37)
Spencer Arrighetti: 87 K / 4.54 ERA. Stephen Kolek: 50 K / 4.03 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).