Rest of Season Projection
MichaelCategoryStephen
98K ←60
3.95ERA ←4.02
1.32WHIP →1.30
4–9W →6–13
0SV0
Current Season
MichaelCategoryStephen
65K ←19
3.23ERA ←3.48
1.12WHIP →0.94
4W ←3
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Michael Wacha
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.253 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 3.95 is 0.72 above the ERA — regression coming
Stephen Kolek
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (3.31)
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 16% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Michael Wacha: 98 K / 3.95 ERA. Stephen Kolek: 60 K / 4.02 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).