week 25
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Elvis Alvarado
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (4.53); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 4WHIP 1.24ERA 3.70W 0–1SV 0
Alvarado is a hold — the whiffs are real, the results are level.
ROS projects K 9 YTD → 4 ROS, WHIP 1.86 YTD → 1.24 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %28.2%—+1.8% ▲vs his ~26.4% career norm
- Walk %11.8%—−0.5% ▼vs his ~12.3% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (4.53)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed48.7%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+8.7%vs his norm —
115 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed14.8%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+6.8%vs his norm —
115 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.327
lg avg .315 ▲+.012vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
195 / 200 TBF
xERA4.53
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.43vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
195 / 200 TBF
ERA4.21
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.11vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
47 / 200 IP
Strikeout %28.2%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+6.2%vs his norm +1.8% ▲
195 / 70 TBF
Walk %11.8%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.8%vs his norm −0.5% ▼
195 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.262
lg avg .295 ▼−.033vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
115 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %16.1%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+5.1%vs his norm —
195 / 60 TBF
Chase %29.6%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+1.1%vs his norm —
195 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo98.8 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+4.8 mphvs his norm —
813 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 28.2%→27.3%signal4 K — K% 28.2% (signal) tempered to career ~26.4% → projected 27.3% over ~4 remaining IP.
xERA 4.53noise3.70 ERA — xERA 4.53 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 10 IP.
BB% 11.8% + contactsignal1.24 WHIP — a 12% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.290 gives a 1.37 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role0-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0 SV — role: setup, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.