week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Elvis Alvarado
data as of July 21, 2026·week 17
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (5.34); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 15ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 2–5SV 0
Alvarado is a hold — the data is split and the sample is thin.
ROS projects K 9 YTD → 15 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %30.4%—+4.0% ▲vs his ~26.4% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (5.34)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed50.0%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+10.0%vs his norm —
68 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed20.6%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+12.6%vs his norm —
68 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.352
lg avg .315 ▲+.037vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
115 / 200 TBF
xERA5.34
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.24vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
115 / 200 TBF
ERA5.79
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.69vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
28 / 200 IP
Strikeout %30.4%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+8.4%vs his norm +4.0% ▲
115 / 70 TBF
Walk %9.6%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.6%vs his norm −2.7% ▼Walk % is below his ~12.3% norm — expect it to rise.
115 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.262
lg avg .295 ▼−.033vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
68 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %16.8%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+5.8%vs his norm —
115 / 60 TBF
Chase %32.5%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+4.0%vs his norm —
115 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo98.9 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+4.9 mphvs his norm —
493 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 30.4%→27.8%signal15 K — K% 30.4% (signal) tempered to career ~26.4% → projected 27.8% over ~17 remaining…
xERA 5.34noise3.70 ERA — xERA 5.34 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 10 IP.
BB% 9.6% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 10% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.292 gives a 1.25 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role2-5 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0 SV — role: setup, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.