Elvis Alvarado
Alvarado is a sell-high — his ERA is running on borrowed luck.
His ERA is 3.90, but the number holding it down is his BABIP-against: .268, well below the league average of .295. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable, and he has 137. That gap is luck, not skill. His expected ERA is 4.42 — half a run above what the box score shows — and it has been climbing as the sample grows. The contact allowed backs that up: 46.7% hard-hit and 13.1% barrels, both well above league, on a sample past the point where those numbers become reliable. He misses bats at 28.4%, so the stuff is real, but the walks sit at 10.9% and the contact quality is poor. The scoreboard is ahead of the skill. Sell high. The 4.17 ERA / 1.30 WHIP ROS line is barely rosterable — cash the inflated line in, a drop-tier tax otherwise.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %28.4%—+2.0% ▲vs his ~26.4% career norm
- Walk %10.9%—−1.4% ▼vs his ~12.3% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.268 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 4.42 is 0.52 above the ERA — regression coming
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.