week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekSELL-HIGH
Joel Kuhnel
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
ON THE 15-DAY IL
flipped from SELL-HIGH
Hold · wait & see strikeout rate 14% is stable and well below league, limits the ceiling — skill near league average (5.41); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 13ERA 3.76WHIP 1.25W 1–1SV 3–5
Kuhnel is a hold — league average with no edge to exploit.
ROS projects K 13 YTD → 13 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %14.0%—−3.6% ▼vs his ~17.6% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (5.41)
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 14% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed39.5%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−0.5%vs his norm —
119 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed5.9%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.1%vs his norm —
119 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.355
lg avg .315 ▲+.040vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
157 / 200 TBF
xERA5.41
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.31vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
157 / 200 TBF
ERA4.84
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.74vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
35.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %14.0%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−8.0%vs his norm −3.6% ▼
157 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.6%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.4%vs his norm +1.7% ▲Walk % is above his ~5.9% norm — expect it to fall.
157 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.301
lg avg .295 ▲+.006vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
119 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.7%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.3%vs his norm —
157 / 60 TBF
Chase %29.2%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+0.7%vs his norm —
157 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo95.1 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+1.1 mphvs his norm —
562 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 14.0%→16.0%signal13 K — K% 14.0% (signal) lifted to career ~17.6% → projected 16.0% over ~21 remaining IP.
xERA 5.41noise3.76 ERA — xERA 5.41 (noise) blended 3% skill / 97% league 3.70 at 24 IP.
BB% 7.6% + contactnoise1.25 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.296 gives a 1.47 skill WHIP, blended 3%…
run support + role1-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (closer)3-5 SV — role: closer.
rosterdeep8 SV, 3.76 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.