week 10
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
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Joel Kuhnel
data as of June 3, 2026·week 10
Kuhnel is a sell-high — his ERA is built on BABIP luck.
His ERA stands at 3.04, but the number keeping runs down is his BABIP-against at .267, well below the league average of .295. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable, and he has only 77 — that gap is luck, not skill. Strip out the noise, and his xERA of 4.56 is 1.52 runs higher, a clear sign of regression ahead. Meanwhile, his strikeout rate is a stable 13.3%, well below the league average of 22%, removing any elite-stuff safety net. Contact quality allowed is roughly average, limiting the damage, but the lack of swings-and-misses means his margin for error is thin. The ERA is real on the scoreboard; the xERA is real in the data. Sell high.
Sell High
high0.95
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.267 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 4.56 is 1.52 above the ERA — regression coming
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 13% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed36.4%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−3.6%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL77 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed5.2%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.8%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL77 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.335
lg avg .315 ▲+.020too early to trust
NOISE98 / 200 TBF
xERA4.56
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.46too early to trust
NOISE98 / 200 TBF
ERA3.04
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.06too early to trust
NOISE23.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %13.3%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−8.7%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL98 / 70 TBF
Walk %6.1%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.9%too early to trust
NOISE98 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.267
lg avg .295 ▼−.028too early to trust
NOISE77 / 800 BIP