week 25
this weekHOLD
last weekSELL-HIGH
Joel Kuhnel
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
flipped from SELL-HIGH on September 10, 2026
Hold · wait & see strikeout rate 14% is stable and well below league, limits the ceiling — skill near league average (5.46); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 3WHIP 1.25ERA 3.76W 0–0SV 1–1
Kuhnel is a hold — league average, and the strikeouts are falling.
ROS projects K 13 YTD → 3 ROS, WHIP 1.18 YTD → 1.25 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %13.5%—−4.1% ▼vs his ~17.6% career norm
- Walk %7.6%—+1.7% ▲vs his ~5.9% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (5.46)
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 14% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed40.0%
lg avg 40.0% 0.0%vs his norm —
130 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed5.4%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.6%vs his norm —
130 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.355
lg avg .315 ▲+.040vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
170 / 200 TBF
xERA5.46
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.36vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
170 / 200 TBF
ERA4.74
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.64vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
38 / 200 IP
Strikeout %13.5%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−8.5%vs his norm −4.1% ▼
170 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.6%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.4%vs his norm +1.7% ▲
170 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.306
lg avg .295 ▲+.011vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
130 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.2%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.8%vs his norm —
170 / 60 TBF
Chase %29.0%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+0.5%vs his norm —
170 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo95.0 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+1.0 mphvs his norm —
616 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 13.5%→15.7%signal3 K — K% 13.5% (signal) lifted to career ~17.6% → projected 15.7% over ~5 remaining IP.
xERA 5.46noise3.76 ERA — xERA 5.46 (noise) blended 3% skill / 97% league 3.70 at 24 IP.
BB% 7.6% + contactsignal1.25 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.297 gives a 1.49 skill WHIP, blended 3%…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (closer)1-1 SV — role: closer.
rosterdeep5 SV, 3.76 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.