Rest of Season Projection
JoelCategoryJosé
26K →54
3.73ERA →3.70
1.25WHIP →1.24
1–2W1–3
5–8SV ←1–3
Current Season
JoelCategoryJosé
13K →26
3.04ERA ←5.59
1.18WHIP ←1.81
1W1
4SV ←1
What Each Player's System Trusts
Joel Kuhnel
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.267 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 4.56 is 1.52 above the ERA — regression coming
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 13% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
José Alvarado
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.441 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
Joel Kuhnel: 26 K / 3.73 ERA. José Alvarado: 54 K / 3.70 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).