week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekNO CALL
Trevor Richards
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
new call as of July 18, 2026
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (3.64); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 20ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0
Richards is a hold — league average, no edge either way.
ROS projects K 14 YTD → 20 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %24.6%—−0.6% ▼vs his ~25.2% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (3.64)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed41.7%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+1.7%vs his norm —
96 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.3%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.3%vs his norm —
96 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.297
lg avg .315 ▼−.018vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
142 / 200 TBF
xERA3.64
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.46vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
142 / 200 TBF
ERA3.31
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.79vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
35.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %24.6%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+2.6%vs his norm −0.6% ▼
142 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.3%vs his norm −2.5% ▼Walk % is below his ~10.2% norm — expect it to rise.
142 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.211
lg avg .295 ▼−.084vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
96 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.5%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.5%vs his norm —
142 / 60 TBF
Chase %29.5%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+1.0%vs his norm —
142 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo92.3 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−1.7 mphvs his norm —
550 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 24.6%→25.0%signal20 K — K% 24.6% (signal) lifted to career ~25.2% → projected 25.0% over ~22 remaining IP.
xERA 3.64noise3.70 ERA — xERA 3.64 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 16 IP.
BB% 7.7% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.285 gives a 1.24 skill WHIP, blended 0%…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.