MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Trevor Richards
week 31
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekNO CALL

Trevor Richards

CWS·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
new call as of October 26, 2026
Sell High luck-free xERA 4.15 is 0.46 above the ERA, regression coming — BABIP-against 0.250 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.83
ROSK 0ERA 3.99WHIP 1.26W 0–0SV 0

Richards is a sell-high — the ERA is flattered by suppressed BABIP-against.

His ERA is 3.69, but that number is built on a stat that will not hold. His BABIP-against is .250 against a league average of .295, and BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable. He has 245. That gap is luck, not a skill he has shown. Strip it out and his expected ERA is 4.15 — .46 above the ERA, right at league average. His expected wOBA allowed is .313, and he strikes out 21.2% of batters and walks 7.5%, both close to league. Nothing in his stable profile says he misses bats at an above-average rate. The reported runs-prevented number is doing him a favor the underlying skills do not support. Sell high. 0 K / 3.99 ERA / 1.26 WHIP is fringe — a sell-high window to stream out and drop before regression hits.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %21.2%—−4.0% ▼vs his ~25.2% career norm
  • Walk %7.5%—−2.7% ▼vs his ~10.2% career norm

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.250 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
  • xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 4.15 is 0.46 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed41.2%
believable since Jun 341.2%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+1.2%vs his norm —
245 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed9.0%
9.0%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.0%vs his norm —
245 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.313
.313*
lg avg .315 ▼−.002vs his norm —
345 / 200 TBF
xERA4.15
4.15*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.05vs his norm —
345 / 200 TBF
ERA3.69
3.69*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.41vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
83 / 200 IP
Strikeout %21.2%
norm21.2%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−0.8%vs his norm −4.0% ▼
345 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.5%
norm7.5%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.5%vs his norm −2.7% ▼
345 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.250
.250*
lg avg .295 ▼−.045vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
245 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.7%
10.7%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.3%vs his norm —
345 / 60 TBF
Chase %30.6%
30.6%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+2.1%vs his norm —
345 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo91.9 mph
91.9 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−2.1 mphvs his norm —
1302 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 21.2%→22.7%signal0 K — K% 21.2% (signal) lifted to career ~25.2% → projected 22.7% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 4.15signal3.99 ERA — xERA 4.15 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 3.70 at 16 IP.
BB% 7.5% + contactsignal1.26 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.281 gives a 1.27 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop3.99 ERA, 1.26 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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