Trevor Richards
Richards is a buy — stable skill, no luck involved
His expected ERA is 3.73, which is .37 below the league average of 4.10, and at 281 batters faced that number is past the point where it becomes reliable. Nothing on his line is being held up by luck. He allows a .299 expected wOBA, below the .315 league mark, so the contact he gives up is genuinely weak. His strikeout rate is 22.1% and his walk rate is 7.8%, both sitting right at league average — those rates have stabilized too. The cap on the profile is his fastball at 91.9 mph, well below the 94.0 league mark, but he keeps barrels at 7.1% and hard contact at 39.1%, both slightly better than league. The expected ERA has been stepping down across the sample, and a pitcher beating his expected numbers with average stuff and above-average contact suppression is a real skill profile. Buy. Just 5 K with a 3.72 ERA and 1.26 WHIP rest of way — a deep-league streamer, not a roster-anywhere add.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %22.1%—−3.1% ▼vs his ~25.2% career norm
- Walk %7.8%—−2.4% ▼vs his ~10.2% career norm
Drivers
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 3.73, 0.37 below league — production is earned
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.