week 27
this weekHOLD
last week—
Jayden Murray
data as of September 30, 2026·week 27
Hold · wait & see BABIP-against 0.415 elevated and unstable, the 9.37 ERA overstates the damage; but luck-free xERA 5.80 is +1.70 vs league, the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy; hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.55 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0
Murray is a hold — the rough ERA is noise, the skill underneath is short.
ROS projects K 8 YTD → 0 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.415 elevated and unstable — the 9.37 ERA overstates the damage
- xeraNOISEbut luck-free xERA 5.80 is +1.70 vs league — the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed42.9%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+2.9%vs his norm —
56 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed14.3%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+6.3%vs his norm —Barrel % Allowed is above the ~8.0% league average — expect it to fall.
56 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.363
lg avg .315 ▲+.048vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
79 / 200 TBF
xERA5.80
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.70vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
79 / 200 TBF
ERA9.37
lg avg 4.10 ▲+5.27vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
16.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %17.7%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−4.3%vs his norm —
79 / 70 TBF
Walk %11.4%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.4%vs his norm —Walk % is above the ~8.0% league average — expect it to fall.
79 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.415
lg avg .295 ▲+.120vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
56 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %13.5%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+2.5%vs his norm —
79 / 60 TBF
Chase %28.6%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+0.1%vs his norm —
79 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo95.3 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+1.3 mphvs his norm —
304 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 17.7%→19.0%signal0 K — K% 17.7% (signal) lifted to RP mean ~24.0% → projected 19.0% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 5.80noise3.70 ERA — xERA 5.80 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 13 IP.
BB% 11.4% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 11% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.303 gives a 1.61 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.