week 27
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekHOLD
Dedniel Núñez
data as of September 27, 2026·week 27
flipped from HOLD on September 27, 2026
Sell High BABIP-against 0.271 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; luck-free xERA 3.95 is 0.45 above the ERA, regression coming; sell into the hype before regression.med 0.73 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0
Núñez is a sell-high — his ERA is riding a BABIP that won't hold.
Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.271 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.95 is 0.45 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed40.4%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+0.4%vs his norm —
52 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed11.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.5%vs his norm —Barrel % Allowed is above the ~8.0% league average — expect it to fall.
52 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.306
lg avg .315 ▼−.009vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
69 / 200 TBF
xERA3.95
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.15vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
69 / 200 TBF
ERA3.50
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.60vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
18 / 200 IP
Strikeout %24.6%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+2.6%vs his norm −8.7% ▼Strikeout % is below his ~33.3% norm — expect it to rise.
69 / 70 TBF
Walk %0.0%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−8.0%vs his norm −7.7% ▼Walk % is below his ~7.7% norm — expect it to rise.
69 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.271
lg avg .295 ▼−.024vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
52 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %20.9%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+9.9%vs his norm —
69 / 60 TBF
Chase %47.5%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+19.0%vs his norm —
69 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo96.6 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+2.6 mphvs his norm —
201 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 24.6%→31.1%noise0 K — K% 24.6% (noise) lifted to career ~33.3% → projected 31.1% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 3.95noise3.70 ERA — xERA 3.95 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 1 IP.
BB% 0.0% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 0% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.293 gives a 0.98 skill WHIP, blended 0%…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.