week 10
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
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JoJo Romero
data as of June 3, 2026·week 10
Romero is a sell-high — ERA built on BABIP luck.
His ERA is 2.70, but that number is being held down by a BABIP-against of .261 — 34 points below the league average of .295. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable; he has 73. That gap is luck, not skill. The market sees the low ERA, but the underlying numbers tell a different story. His expected ERA is 4.43 — a 1.73-run gap from his actual ERA — and all of that regression is baked into the noise. His hard-hit rate allowed is 45.2%, five points above league average, and his barrel rate is 6.8%, near league average. His strikeout rate is also average. There is no elite skill to lean on when the BABIP normalizes. The data on this card is limited, so this call rests on the gap that exists. Sell high.
Sell High
high0.95
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.261 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 4.43 is 1.73 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed45.2%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+5.2%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL73 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.8%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.2%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL73 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.331
lg avg .315 ▲+.016too early to trust
NOISE109 / 200 TBF
xERA4.43
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.33too early to trust
NOISE109 / 200 TBF
ERA2.70
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.40too early to trust
NOISE26.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %22.9%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+0.9%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL109 / 70 TBF
Walk %9.2%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.2%too early to trust
NOISE109 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.261
lg avg .295 ▼−.034too early to trust
NOISE73 / 800 BIP