MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of JoJo Romero
week 31
this weekSELL
last weekSELL-HIGH

JoJo Romero

MIL·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
flipped from SELL-HIGH on October 26, 2026
Sell stable xERA 4.45 +0.35 vs league with no luck excuse; move on.med 0.66
ROSK 0ERA 4.19WHIP 1.28W 0–0SV 0

Romero is a sell — stable, below league, no luck excuse.

His expected ERA is 4.45, which is .35 above the league average of 4.10, and his sample of 238 batters faced is past the point where that number becomes reliable. What makes the number worse is its direction: xERA has been stepping up across the sample, not settling down. His expected wOBA allowed is .323 against a league average of .315, so the contact he gives up backs up the run-prevention number rather than contradicting it. His strikeout rate of 22.7% and walk rate of 7.6% are both right at league average — no swing-and-miss edge to lean on. The 9.2% swinging-strike rate is actually two points below league, and that tells you where the ceiling sits. There is no suppressed BABIP-against here doing him a favor, and no unlucky stretch to come back from. He is what the numbers say he is. Sell. With 0 SV and a 4.19 ERA on the ROS line, that's a streaming-only arm at best — cut him.

VS His Norm

  • Walk %7.6%—−1.3% ▼vs his ~8.9% career norm
  • Strikeout %22.7%—−0.1% ▼vs his ~22.8% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 4.45 +0.35 vs league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed38.9%
38.9%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−1.1%vs his norm —
162 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.4%
7.4%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.6%vs his norm —
162 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.323
believable since Sep 7.323*
lg avg .315 ▲+.008vs his norm —
238 / 200 TBF
xERA4.45
4.45*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.35vs his norm —
238 / 200 TBF
ERA3.35
3.35*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.75vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
56.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %22.7%
norm22.7%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+0.7%vs his norm −0.1% ▼
238 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.6%
norm7.6%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.4%vs his norm −1.3% ▼
238 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.288
.288*
lg avg .295 ▼−.007vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
162 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %9.2%
9.2%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.8%vs his norm —
238 / 60 TBF
Chase %27.6%
27.6%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−0.9%vs his norm —
238 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.4 mph
94.4 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.4 mphvs his norm —
922 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 22.7%→22.8%signal0 K — K% 22.7% (signal) held to career ~22.8% → projected 22.8% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 4.45signal4.19 ERA — xERA 4.45 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 3.70 at 27 IP.
BB% 7.6% + contactsignal1.28 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.294 gives a 1.30 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0 SV — role: setup, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop4.19 ERA, 1.28 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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