MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
week 25
this weekSELL
last weekSELL

Edward Cabrera

data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
ON THE 15-DAY IL
Sell stable xERA 5.08 +0.98 vs league with no luck excuse; move on.high 0.84
ROSK 13ERA 4.74WHIP 1.39W 0–1SV 0

Cabrera is a sell — his expected ERA is nearly a full run above league.

His xERA is 5.08, a full run above the league average of 4.10, and with 329 batters faced, that number is reliable. There is no bad-luck story pulling it up. The contact he allows is poor: a 42.5% hard-hit rate and an 11.8% barrel rate, both above league, and his xwOBA allowed of .344 sits 29 points above average. He does throw hard, 96.2 mph on the fastball, and he gets chases at 32.3%, but it has not translated — his strikeout rate is 20.4%, below the 22% league mark, and he walks 9.7% of batters. The xERA has been stepping up across the sample. This is the level he's at, not a rough patch. Sell. 13 K and a 4.74 ERA ROS is streaming-only at best — that sell is a drop, not a bench stash.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %20.4%−5.0%vs his ~25.4% career norm
  • Walk %9.7%−1.6%vs his ~11.3% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 5.08 +0.98 vs league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed42.5%
42.5%*
lg avg 40.0% +2.5%vs his norm —
228 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed11.8%
11.8%*
lg avg 8.0% +3.8%vs his norm —
228 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.344
.344*
lg avg .315 +.029vs his norm —
329 / 200 TBF
xERA5.08
5.08*
lg avg 4.10 +0.98vs his norm —
329 / 200 TBF
ERA5.68
5.68*
lg avg 4.10 +1.58vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league averageexpect it to fall.
76 / 200 IP
Strikeout %20.4%
norm20.4%*
lg avg 22.0% −1.6%vs his norm −5.0%
329 / 70 TBF
Walk %9.7%
norm9.7%*
lg avg 8.0% +1.7%vs his norm −1.6%
329 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.297
.297*
lg avg .295 +.002vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league averageexpect it to fall.
228 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.7%
12.7%*
lg avg 11.0% +1.7%vs his norm —
329 / 60 TBF
Chase %32.3%
32.3%*
lg avg 28.5% +3.8%vs his norm —
329 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo96.2 mph
96.2 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph +2.2 mphvs his norm —
1280 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 20.4%→22.3%signal13 K — K% 20.4% (signal) lifted to career ~25.4% → projected 22.3% over ~12 remaining IP.
xERA 5.08signal4.74 ERA — xERA 5.08 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 58 IP.
BB% 9.7% + contactsignal1.39 WHIP — a 10% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.296 gives a 1.45 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role0-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop13 K ROS, 4.74 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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