Edward Cabrera

data as of June 6, 2026·week 11

Cabrera is a sell — the ERA is hiding true skill.

His expected ERA is 4.48, which is 0.38 above league average and his sample of 227 batters faced is past the stabilization point, so this is a reliable measure of his run-prevention skill. The xERA has been stepping up across the sample, which means the trend is worsening, not improving. The issue is his contact quality: he allows a 12.0% barrel rate and a .332 expected wOBA — both above league average — with plenty of batted balls to trust. His strikeout rate is a tick below league average and his walk rate is a tick above, leaving no elite skill to lean on. There is no luck story to hide behind; the BABIP is not in the data, but the xERA and xwOBA already strip that out. Sell. 103 K and a 4.35 ERA make him a deep-league streamer, not a hold.

Sell

med0.66

Drivers

xeraSIGNALstable xERA 4.48 +0.38 vs league with no luck excuse

metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?

Hard-Hit % Allowed39.2%

lg avg 40.0% ▼−0.8%trustworthy at this sample

SIGNAL

158 / 50 BBE

Barrel % Allowed12.0%

lg avg 8.0% ▲+4.0%trustworthy at this sample

SIGNAL

158 / 60 BBE

xwOBA Allowed.332

lg avg .315 ▲+.017trustworthy at this sample

SIGNAL

227 / 200 TBF

xERA4.48

lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.38trustworthy at this sample

SIGNAL

227 / 200 TBF

ERA4.00

lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.10too early to trust

NOISE

54 / 200 IP

Strikeout %20.7%

lg avg 22.0% ▼−1.3%trustworthy at this sample

SIGNAL

227 / 70 TBF

Walk %8.8%

lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.8%trustworthy at this sample

SIGNAL

227 / 170 TBF

BABIP Against.302

lg avg .295 ▲+.007too early to trust

NOISE

158 / 800 BIP

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row for the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf

rosterdeep103 K ROS, 4.35 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input — tap any row for the derivation.

Drivers

5×5 ROS Outlook

Comparisons