MLB Daily DeltaWeek 27 · September 27, 2026
week 27
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD

Victor Vodnik

MIA·P
data as of September 27, 2026·week 27
Hold · steady skill near league average (4.20); hold steady — skill tracks near league, no edge either way.med 0.60
ROSK 0ERA 4.03WHIP 1.51W 0–0SV 0–0

Vodnik is a hold — average on the surface and underneath.

His expected ERA is 4.20, a hair above the league average of 4.10, and while the number has been stepping upward across the sample it has not moved far enough to call it a trend. His xwOBA allowed is .315, exactly league average, on 260 batters faced — past the point where that number is reliable. The contact he allows is ordinary: a 39.6% hard-hit rate and a 4.4% barrel rate, both close to or below league. The concern is the walk rate, 12.3% against a league average of 8.0%, which is high and stable. But the strikeouts (16.5%) and chase rate (26.4%) are low enough to cancel most of it. Nothing here is unstable and nothing is out of line. Hold.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %16.5%—−4.7% ▼vs his ~21.2% career norm
  • Walk %12.3%—+0.5% ▲vs his ~11.8% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALskill near league average (4.20)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed39.6%
39.6%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−0.4%vs his norm —
182 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed4.4%
4.4%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−3.6%vs his norm —
182 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.315
.315*
lg avg .315 .000vs his norm —
260 / 200 TBF
xERA4.20
4.20*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.10vs his norm —
260 / 200 TBF
ERA4.99
4.99*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.89vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
57.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %16.5%
norm16.5%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−5.5%vs his norm −4.7% ▼
260 / 70 TBF
Walk %12.3%
norm12.3%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+4.3%vs his norm +0.5% ▲
260 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.303
.303*
lg avg .295 ▲+.008vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
182 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.5%
11.5%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.5%vs his norm —
260 / 60 TBF
Chase %26.4%
26.4%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−2.1%vs his norm —
260 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo98.6 mph
98.6 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+4.6 mphvs his norm —
1004 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 16.5%→18.6%signal0 K — K% 16.5% (signal) lifted to career ~21.2% → projected 18.6% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 4.20signal4.03 ERA — xERA 4.20 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 3.70 at 18 IP.
BB% 12.3% + contactsignal1.51 WHIP — a 12% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.297 gives a 1.65 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (closer)0-0 SV — role: closer.
rosterdrop4 SV, 4.03 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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