MLB Daily DeltaWeek 18 · July 28, 2026
week 18
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD

Victor Vodnik

COL·P
data as of July 28, 2026·week 18
Hold · wait & see strikeout rate 16% is stable and well below league, limits the ceiling — BABIP-against 0.333 elevated and unstable, the 5.56 ERA overstates the damage; but luck-free xERA 4.45 is +0.35 vs league, the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy; hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.55
ROSK 18ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 1–1SV 3–5

Vodnik is a hold — the surface and the skill both sit below league.

His 5.56 ERA looks worse than he has pitched, but the ceiling is not as high as some might think. His BABIP-against is elevated at .333, which is noise at 111 balls in play — that gap inflates the ERA. His luck-free expected ERA is 4.45, still above the league average of 4.1. The problem is a strikeout rate that sits at 15.5% and is decreasing — well below his 21.2% career baseline and the league norm of 22%. That caps the ceiling even after the BABIP regresses. His fastball comes in at 98.6 mph, but the whiff and chase rates are merely average. There is a real pitcher in here, but the level he regresses to is below average. Hold. 18 K and 3-5 SV with a 3.70 ERA: a deep-league hold for strikeout-dependent ratio risk.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %15.5%—−5.7% ▼vs his ~21.2% career norm

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.333 elevated and unstable — the 5.56 ERA overstates the damage
  • xeraNOISEbut luck-free xERA 4.45 is +0.35 vs league — the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy
  • p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 16% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed41.4%
41.4%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+1.4%vs his norm —
111 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.3%
6.3%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.7%vs his norm —
111 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.325
.325*
lg avg .315 ▲+.010vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
155 / 200 TBF
xERA4.45
4.45*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.35vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
155 / 200 TBF
ERA5.56
5.56*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.46vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
34 / 200 IP
Strikeout %15.5%
norm15.5%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−6.5%vs his norm −5.7% ▼
155 / 70 TBF
Walk %12.3%
norm12.3%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+4.3%vs his norm +0.5% ▲Walk % is above his ~11.8% norm — expect it to fall.
155 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.333
.333*
lg avg .295 ▲+.038vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
111 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.3%
11.3%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.3%vs his norm —
155 / 60 TBF
Chase %27.3%
27.3%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−1.2%vs his norm —
155 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo98.6 mph
98.6 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+4.6 mphvs his norm —
584 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 15.5%→18.7%signal18 K — K% 15.5% (signal) lifted to career ~21.2% → projected 18.7% over ~17 remaining IP.
xERA 4.45noise3.70 ERA — xERA 4.45 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 18 IP.
BB% 12.3% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 12% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.300 gives a 1.69 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role1-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (closer)3-5 SV — role: closer.
rosterdeep8 SV, 3.70 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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