week 12
this weekHOLD
last week—
Victor Vodnik
data as of June 13, 2026·week 12
ON THE 15-DAY IL
Hold · wait & see BABIP-against 0.397 elevated and unstable, the 8.00 ERA overstates the damage; but luck-free xERA 4.49 is +0.39 vs league, the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy; hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.55 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 33ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 1–3SV 5–9
Vodnik is a hold — noise on both sides, league-average skill.
ROS projects K 16 YTD → 33 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %17.8%—−3.4% ▼vs his ~21.2% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.397 elevated and unstable — the 8.00 ERA overstates the damage
- xeraNOISEbut luck-free xERA 4.49 is +0.39 vs league — the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed35.0%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−5.0%vs his norm —
60 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.3%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.3%vs his norm —
60 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.331
lg avg .315 ▲+.016vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
90 / 200 TBF
xERA4.49
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.39vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
90 / 200 TBF
ERA8.00
lg avg 4.10 ▲+3.90vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
18 / 200 IP
Strikeout %17.8%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−4.2%vs his norm −3.4% ▼
90 / 70 TBF
Walk %14.4%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+6.4%vs his norm +2.6% ▲Walk % is above his ~11.8% norm — expect it to fall.
90 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.397
lg avg .295 ▲+.102vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
60 / 800 BIP
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 17.8%→20.2%signal33 K — K% 17.8% (signal) lifted to career ~21.2% → projected 20.2% over ~33 remaining IP.
xERA 4.49noise3.70 ERA — xERA 4.49 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 18 IP.
BB% 14.4% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 14% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.303 gives a 1.76 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role1-3 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (closer)5-9 SV — role: closer.
rosterdeep11 SV, 3.70 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.