MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
week 25
this weekBUY-LOW
last weekBUY-LOW

David Morgan

SD·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
Buy Low fastball velocity stable and above league, the arm is fine — luck-free xERA 3.39 sits 0.71 below league, a real arm the ERA is hiding; BABIP-against 0.408 elevated and unstable, bloating the ERA; buy the player, not the number.high 0.90
ROSK 6ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–1SV 0

Morgan is a buy-low — the arm is above league, the ERA is not

His fastball is sitting at 97.6 mph, and that number is trending up across the sample. That is where this starts, because the arm is the one thing the ERA cannot touch. His BABIP-against is .408, 113 points above the league average of .295, and that is the entire story behind the 4.62 ERA. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable. He has 75. That gap is luck, not the pitcher. Take the luck away and his expected ERA is 3.39 — 0.71 runs better than league. He strikes out 23.8% of batters, and his swinging-strike rate of 15.6% is well above the 11.0% league mark, so the misses are coming from the stuff and not the sequencing. The surface is cold. The arm is not. Buy low. Deep-league only, but a 6 K / 3.70 ERA / 1.24 WHIP line is a stash-and-hold, not a drop.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %23.8%—−1.2% ▼vs his ~25.0% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.39 sits 0.71 below league — a real arm the ERA is hiding
  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.408 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALfastball velocity stable and above league — the arm is fine
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed28.0%
28.0%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−12.0%vs his norm —
75 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed1.3%
1.3%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−6.7%vs his norm —
75 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.286
.286*
lg avg .315 ▼−.029vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
126 / 200 TBF
xERA3.39
3.39*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.71vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
126 / 200 TBF
ERA4.62
4.62*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.52vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
25.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %23.8%
norm23.8%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+1.8%vs his norm −1.2% ▼
126 / 70 TBF
Walk %12.7%
norm12.7%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+4.7%vs his norm +0.0% ▲Walk % is above his ~12.7% norm — expect it to fall.
126 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.408
.408*
lg avg .295 ▲+.113vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
75 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %15.6%
15.6%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+4.6%vs his norm —
126 / 60 TBF
Chase %35.6%
35.6%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+7.1%vs his norm —
126 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo97.6 mph
97.6 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+3.6 mphvs his norm —
467 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 23.8%→24.5%signal6 K — K% 23.8% (signal) lifted to career ~25.0% → projected 24.5% over ~5 remaining IP.
xERA 3.39noise3.70 ERA — xERA 3.39 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 15 IP.
BB% 12.7% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 13% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.306 gives a 1.56 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role0-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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