week 17
this weekBUY-LOW
last weekBUY-LOW
David Morgan
data as of July 21, 2026·week 17
ON THE 15-DAY IL
Buy Low fastball velocity stable and above league, the arm is fine — luck-free xERA 3.33 sits 0.77 below league, a real arm the ERA is hiding; BABIP-against 0.400 elevated and unstable, bloating the ERA; buy the player, not the number.high 0.90 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 23ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 1–4SV 0
Morgan is a buy-low — the ERA is lying about his arm.
ERA ugly, but the skill it regresses to is league-or-better and the BABIP-against is unsustainable. Buy low.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %24.8%—−0.2% ▼vs his ~25.0% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.33 sits 0.77 below league — a real arm the ERA is hiding
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.400 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
- p_fastball_veloSIGNALfastball velocity stable and above league — the arm is fine
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed27.0%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−13.0%vs his norm —
63 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed1.6%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−6.4%vs his norm —
63 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.284
lg avg .315 ▼−.031vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
105 / 200 TBF
xERA3.33
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.77vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
105 / 200 TBF
ERA4.50
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.40vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
22 / 200 IP
Strikeout %24.8%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+2.8%vs his norm −0.2% ▼
105 / 70 TBF
Walk %12.4%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+4.4%vs his norm −0.3% ▼Walk % is below his ~12.7% norm — expect it to rise.
105 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.400
lg avg .295 ▲+.105vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
63 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %16.1%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+5.1%vs his norm —
105 / 60 TBF
Chase %36.3%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+7.8%vs his norm —
105 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo97.4 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+3.4 mphvs his norm —
398 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 24.8%→24.9%signal23 K — K% 24.8% (signal) held to career ~25.0% → projected 24.9% over ~20 remaining IP.
xERA 3.33noise3.70 ERA — xERA 3.33 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 15 IP.
BB% 12.4% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 12% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.303 gives a 1.52 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role1-4 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.