week 31
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
David Morgan
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (3.81); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0
Morgan is a hold — the profile is mostly neutral right now
ROS projects K 17 YTD → 0 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %24.1%—−0.9% ▼vs his ~25.0% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (3.81)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed32.3%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−7.7%vs his norm —
96 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed3.1%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−4.9%vs his norm —
96 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.301
lg avg .315 ▼−.014vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
162 / 200 TBF
xERA3.81
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.29vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
162 / 200 TBF
ERA3.78
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.32vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
33.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %24.1%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+2.1%vs his norm −0.9% ▼
162 / 70 TBF
Walk %13.6%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+5.6%vs his norm +0.9% ▲Walk % is above his ~12.7% norm — expect it to fall.
162 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.380
lg avg .295 ▲+.085vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
96 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %15.2%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+4.2%vs his norm —
162 / 60 TBF
Chase %33.3%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+4.8%vs his norm —
162 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo97.7 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+3.7 mphvs his norm —
597 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 24.1%→24.6%signal0 K — K% 24.1% (signal) lifted to career ~25.0% → projected 24.6% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 3.81noise3.70 ERA — xERA 3.81 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 15 IP.
BB% 13.6% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 14% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.305 gives a 1.59 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.