MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 18, 2026
Engraved portrait of Jaden Hill
week 17
this weekBUY-LOW
last weekHOLD

Jaden Hill

COL·P
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
ON THE 15-DAY IL
flipped from HOLD
Buy Low fastball velocity stable and above league, the arm is fine — luck-free xERA 4.16 is right around league, a usable arm the ERA is hiding; BABIP-against 0.329 elevated and unstable, bloating the ERA; buy the player, not the number.high 0.87
ROSK 22ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0

Hill is a buy-low — contact-supression skill the ERA is hiding.

His ERA sits at 5.06, but that number is overstating his actual run-prevention level. The culprit is his BABIP-against: .329, 34 points above the league average of .295. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable, and he has 78 — that gap is noise, not a true signal. Strip out the luck and his expected ERA is 4.16, a full run lower and right around league average. His contact-quality numbers are even better: a barrel rate allowed of 3.8%, half the league average of 8.0%, and a hard-hit rate of 39.7%, just below the 40.0% league average. He also generates whiffs at a 14.5% clip, well above the 11.0% league mark, all while sitting 97.1 mph on the fastball — 3 mph above league. The skill to suppress runs is real; the high ERA is the mirage. Buy low. 22 K with a 3.70 ERA and 1.24 WHIP make this a deep-league buy-low on the skill profile.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %22.0%—−0.4% ▼vs his ~22.4% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 4.16 is right around league — a usable arm the ERA is hiding
  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.329 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALfastball velocity stable and above league — the arm is fine
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed39.7%
39.7%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−0.3%vs his norm —
78 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed3.8%
3.8%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−4.2%vs his norm —
78 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.316
.316*
lg avg .315 ▲+.001vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
127 / 200 TBF
xERA4.16
4.16*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.06vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
127 / 200 TBF
ERA5.06
5.06*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.96vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
26.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %22.0%
norm22.0%*
lg avg 22.0% 0.0%vs his norm −0.4% ▼
127 / 70 TBF
Walk %13.4%
norm13.4%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+5.4%vs his norm +3.3% ▲Walk % is above his ~10.1% norm — expect it to fall.
127 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.329
.329*
lg avg .295 ▲+.034vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
78 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %14.5%
14.5%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+3.5%vs his norm —
127 / 60 TBF
Chase %28.8%
28.8%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+0.3%vs his norm —
127 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo97.1 mph
97.1 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+3.1 mphvs his norm —
481 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 22.0%→22.2%signal22 K — K% 22.0% (signal) held to career ~22.4% → projected 22.2% over ~20 remaining IP.
xERA 4.16noise3.70 ERA — xERA 4.16 (noise) blended 1% skill / 99% league 3.70 at 21 IP.
BB% 13.4% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 13% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.298 gives a 1.60 skill WHIP, blended 1…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0 SV — role: setup, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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