Buy-Low — league-wide

40 players · 40 calls·Week 17, July 18, 2026

Grouped Buy → Sell · ranked by confidence within each group

Buy-Low40

1
Jack Perkins ATH vs
xERA 4.22, but ERA 6.87 on .329 BABIP.
Buy Lowconf 0.90
2
Matt Waldron SD vs
3.88 xERA but 7.52 ERA — .427 BABIP-against explains it.
Buy Lowconf 0.90
3
Caleb Kilian SF vs
xERA 3.61 vs ERA 4.74 — 1.13 runs of bad luck.
Buy Lowconf 0.90
4
Tyler Mahle SF vs
xERA 4.19 trumps 5.31 ERA — 1.12-run gap.
Buy Lowconf 0.90
5
Jeff Hoffman TOR vs
3.07 xERA, 1.50 ERA gap — BABIP .402 won't hold.
Buy Lowconf 0.90
6
Mason Fluharty TOR vs
4.54 ERA but 3.05 xERA; 0.357 BABIP inflates it.
Buy Lowconf 0.90
7
Aaron Nola PHI vs
ERA 5.68 but xERA 4.16 — 1.5 runs of bad luck.
Buy Lowconf 0.90
8
José Alvarado PHI vs
BABIP .444 inflates ERA 6.82; xERA 3.71.
Buy Lowconf 0.90
9
Cade Gibson MIA vs
xERA 3.61 but ERA 5.25 — 1.64-run gap.
Buy Lowconf 0.90
10
Grant Wolfram BAL vs
xERA 3.38 vs 4.76 ERA, .362 BABIP driving the gap.
Buy Lowconf 0.90
11
Justin Slaten BOS vs
xERA 3.14 but .431 BABIP; 31% Ks resurface.
Buy Lowconf 0.90
12
Juan Mejia COL vs
xERA 4.19 despite 5.74 ERA, .339 BABIP-against.
Buy Lowconf 0.90
13
Devin Williams NYM vs
BABIP .386 — unlucky, still striking out 30%.
Buy Lowconf 0.90
14
Mason Montgomery PIT vs
34.8% K rate, 98 mph heat — skill gap in BABIP.
Buy Lowconf 0.88
15
Dustin May STL vs
3.74 xERA, 96.9 velo — buy the BABIP bounce.
Buy Lowconf 0.84
16
Lucas Erceg KC vs
97-mph heat but 16.4 K% — velo still there.
Buy Lowconf 0.84
17
Ke'Bryan Hayes CIN vs
xwOBA .310 vs actual .193 — massive underperformance.
Buy Lowconf 0.83
18
José Suarez ATH vs
xERA 3.56, but .372 BABIP inflating ERA by 0.73.
Buy Lowconf 0.82
19
Jesús Luzardo PHI vs
xERA 2.96 despite .331 BABIP — buy the velo jump.
Buy Lowconf 0.77
20
Jordan Hicks CWS vs
3.28 xERA with 99 mph heat; .338 BABIP normalizes.
Buy Lowconf 0.77
21
Jahmai Jones BOS vs
xwOBA 84 points above wOBA, 43% hard-hit rate.
Buy Lowconf 0.77
22
Brent Suter LAA vs
xERA 4.1 but 0.331 BABIP against inflates ERA.
Buy Lowconf 0.76
23
Andrés Muñoz SEA vs
34.5% K, 99.3 velo; ERA inflated by .325 BABIP.
Buy Lowconf 0.74
24
Edmundo Sosa PHI vs
BABIP 70 points below league; xwOBA says .340 hitter.
Buy Lowconf 0.74
25
Aaron Ashby MIL vs
3.12 xERA with 30.6% K rate; .343 BABIP inflates ERA.
Buy Lowconf 0.73
26
Andrew Morris MIN vs
2.93 xERA, 96.8 mph heat — BABIP correction coming.
Buy Lowconf 0.72
27
Austin Wells NYY vs
.188 BABIP masks top-10% hard-hit rate.
Buy Lowconf 0.71
28
Leo Jiménez MIA vs
xwOBA 45 points above wOBA — babip-driven underperformance.
Buy Lowconf 0.69
29
Cam Smith HOU vs
xwOBA .340 with 12% barrels; .045 BABIP tax.
Buy Lowconf 0.69
30
Dylan Crews WSH vs
BABIP .242 suppresses a .318 xwOBA with 42.5% hard hits.
Buy Lowconf 0.69
31
Francisco Lindor NYM vs
.047 xwOBA-wOBA gap despite elite 49% hard-hit.
Buy Lowconf 0.69
32
Patrick Bailey CLE vs
BABIP .238 is suppressing a league-average exit velo.
Buy Lowconf 0.68
33
Marcell Ozuna PIT vs
xwOBA .313 vs .279 wOBA — 34-point gap.
Buy Lowconf 0.67
34
Blaze Jordan STL vs
Contact elite (14.5% K), but .254 BABIP hides real skill.
Buy Lowconf 0.67
35
Lawrence Butler ATH vs
Underperforming xwOBA by 36 points despite hard-hit rate.
Buy Lowconf 0.67
36
Miguel Vargas CWS vs
.243 BABIP hides elite 47% hard-hit, 15.4% barrel.
Buy Lowconf 0.67
37
Mike Trout LAA vs
xwOBA .409 but wOBA .374 — 35-point underperformance.
Buy Lowconf 0.67
38
Jackson Merrill SD vs
xwOBA .306 vs .276 wOBA — .030 points of bad luck.
Buy Lowconf 0.66
39
Ketel Marte AZ vs
xwOBA 0.364 outpaces wOBA 0.332 — due for correction.
Buy Lowconf 0.66
40
Carlos Narváez BOS vs
31.6% K rate overshadows 91.4 mph EV.
Buy Lowconf 0.66