MLB Daily DeltaWeek 27 · September 27, 2026
98 PA · week 27
this weekBUY-LOW
last weekBUY-LOW

Bo Naylor

MIL·C
data as of September 27, 2026·week 27
Buy Low contact quality already past its threshold and intact, the bat is fine — BABIP 0.172 suppressed and unstable, dragging results below the bat; buy the player, not the number.high 0.75
ROSHR 0AVG .000R 0RBI 0SB 0

Naylor is a buy-low — the slump is BABIP noise, the bat is real.

His BABIP is .172, 123 points below the league average of .295. That number needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable, and he has 67, so the gap is luck, not a verdict on his bat. The bat itself looks fine: a 41.5% hard-hit rate, 11.9% barrels, and 89.1 mph off the bat, all at or above league average, with enough batted balls to trust the contact quality. His hard-hit rate has stepped up across the sample. His actual wOBA of .220 and expected wOBA of .293 both trail league, but neither has stabilized yet. The bounces are missing; the swing decisions and contact have not. Buy low.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %11.9%—+3.1% ▲vs his ~8.8% career norm

Drivers

  • babipNOISEBABIP 0.172 suppressed and unstable — dragging results below the bat
  • hard_hit_pctSIGNALcontact quality already past its threshold and intact — the bat is fine
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo89.1 mph
89.1 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+0.1 mphvs his norm —
67 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %41.5%
41.5%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+1.5%vs his norm —
67 / 50 BBE
Barrel %11.9%
norm11.9%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.9%vs his norm +3.1% ▲
67 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.293
.293*
lg avg .315 ▼−.022vs his norm —xwOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
98 / 160 PA
wOBA.220
.220*
lg avg .315 ▼−.095vs his norm —wOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
98 / 200 PA
Strikeout %24.5%
24.5%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+2.5%vs his norm —
98 / 60 PA
Walk %7.1%
7.1%*
lg avg 8.5% ▼−1.4%vs his norm —Walk % is below the ~8.5% league average — expect it to rise.
98 / 120 PA
BABIP.172
norm.172*
lg avg .295 ▼−.123vs his norm −.075 ▼BABIP is below his ~.247 norm — expect it to rise.
67 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %6.6%
6.6%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−4.4%vs his norm —
98 / 50 PA
Chase %26.7%
26.7%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−1.8%vs his norm —
98 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 11.9%→9.6%signal0 HR — Barrel% 11.9% (signal) tempered to career ~8.8% → projected 9.6%.
BABIP 0.172→0.251 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.172 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.259 (xBA 0.216) → 0.251.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.
slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 28 G) over ~0 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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