MLB Daily DeltaWeek 19 · August 2, 2026
90 PA · week 19
this weekBUY-LOW
last week—

Bo Naylor

MIL·C
data as of August 2, 2026·week 19
Buy Low contact quality already past its threshold and intact, the bat is fine — BABIP 0.164 suppressed and unstable, dragging results below the bat; buy the player, not the number.high 0.78
ROSHR 2AVG .203R 5RBI 9SB 0

Naylor is a buy-low — cold results, intact contact quality.

His actual wOBA is .199, far below league average, but that line is being dragged down by a BABIP of .164 against a league average of .295. BABIP needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable, and he has 63 — that gap is luck, not skill. Meanwhile, his contact quality is stable and actually stepping up: his hard-hit rate is 42.6%, above league average, and his barrel rate is 11.1%, well above the 8.0% league mark. His expected wOBA is .290, which is closer to the truth than his actual line. He's hitting the ball hard and getting nothing to show for it. The market is pricing the slump, not the bat. Buy low.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %11.1%—+2.3% ▲vs his ~8.8% career norm

Drivers

  • babipNOISEBABIP 0.164 suppressed and unstable — dragging results below the bat
  • hard_hit_pctSIGNALcontact quality already past its threshold and intact — the bat is fine
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo89.6 mph
89.6 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+0.6 mphvs his norm —
63 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %42.6%
42.6%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+2.6%vs his norm —
63 / 50 BBE
Barrel %11.1%
norm11.1%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.1%vs his norm +2.3% ▲
63 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.290
.290*
lg avg .315 ▼−.025vs his norm —xwOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
90 / 160 PA
wOBA.199
.199*
lg avg .315 ▼−.116vs his norm —wOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
90 / 200 PA
Strikeout %23.3%
23.3%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+1.3%vs his norm —
90 / 60 PA
Walk %6.7%
6.7%*
lg avg 8.5% ▼−1.8%vs his norm —Walk % is below the ~8.5% league average — expect it to rise.
90 / 120 PA
BABIP.164
norm.164*
lg avg .295 ▼−.131vs his norm −.083 ▼BABIP is below his ~.247 norm — expect it to rise.
63 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %6.7%
6.7%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−4.3%vs his norm —
90 / 50 PA
Chase %25.6%
25.6%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−2.9%vs his norm —
90 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 11.1%→9.3%signal2 HR — Barrel% 11.1% (signal) tempered to career ~8.8% → projected 9.3%.
BABIP 0.164→0.250 regressednoise.203 AVG — BABIP 0.164 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.257 (xBA 0.215) → 0.250.
on-base + lineup5 R — his run rate over ~117 projected PA.
slugging + lineup9 RBI — his RBI rate over ~117 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 28 G) over ~117 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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