194 PA · week 17
this weekBUY-LOW
last weekBUY-LOW
Patrick Bailey
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Buy Low contact quality already past its threshold and intact, the bat is fine — BABIP 0.238 suppressed and unstable, dragging results below the bat; buy the player, not the number.med 0.68 (narrative held for review)
ROSHR 3AVG .208R 8RBI 12SB 3
Bailey is a buy-low — BABIP is hiding the contact.
Cold results, but stable contact quality and a depressed BABIP say the slump is noise. Buy low.
VS His Norm
- Barrel %6.1%—−0.7% ▼vs his ~6.8% career norm
Drivers
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.238 suppressed and unstable — dragging results below the bat
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALcontact quality already past its threshold and intact — the bat is fine
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo90.2 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+1.2 mphvs his norm —
131 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %38.9%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−1.1%vs his norm —
131 / 50 BBE
Barrel %6.1%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.9%vs his norm −0.7% ▼
131 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.273
lg avg .315 ▼−.042vs his norm —
194 / 160 PA
wOBA.232
lg avg .315 ▼−.083vs his norm —wOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
194 / 200 PA
Strikeout %25.8%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+3.8%vs his norm —
194 / 60 PA
Walk %6.7%
lg avg 8.5% ▼−1.8%vs his norm —
194 / 120 PA
BABIP.238
lg avg .295 ▼−.057vs his norm −.064 ▼BABIP is below his ~.301 norm — expect it to rise.
131 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %13.8%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+2.8%vs his norm —
194 / 50 PA
Chase %32.1%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+3.6%vs his norm —
194 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 6.1%→6.5%signal3 HR — Barrel% 6.1% (signal) lifted to career ~6.8% → projected 6.5%.
BABIP 0.238→0.260 regressednoise.208 AVG — BABIP 0.238 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.265 (xBA 0.216) → 0.260.
on-base + lineup8 R — his run rate over ~154 projected PA.
slugging + lineup12 RBI — his RBI rate over ~154 projected PA.
run rate / role3 SB — his steal rate (2 in 40 G) over ~154 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.