MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Patrick Bailey
345 PA · week 31
this weekBUY-LOW
last weekBUY-LOW

Patrick Bailey

CLE·C
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Buy Low contact quality already past its threshold and intact, the bat is fine — BABIP 0.256 suppressed and unstable, dragging results below the bat; buy the player, not the number.med 0.67
ROSHR 0AVG .000R 0RBI 0SB 0

Bailey is a buy-low — the contact is real, the BABIP is not.

His hard-hit rate has climbed across the sample to 42.4%, above the league average of 40.0%, and with 224 batted balls he is well past the point where contact quality becomes reliable. His average exit velocity is 90.5 mph against a league average of 89.0. The results have not matched that: his actual wOBA is .271 while his expected wOBA is .307. The stat dragging the line down is his BABIP, .256 against a league average of .295 — and BABIP needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable. He has 224. That gap is luck, not skill, and it will close. The strikeout rate is a real caveat at 26.7% with a 13.3% swinging-strike rate, so the batting average has a ceiling. The bat underneath the cold line is genuine. Buy low.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %7.6%—+0.8% ▲vs his ~6.8% career norm

Drivers

  • babipNOISEBABIP 0.256 suppressed and unstable — dragging results below the bat
  • hard_hit_pctSIGNALcontact quality already past its threshold and intact — the bat is fine
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo90.5 mph
90.5 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+1.5 mphvs his norm —
224 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %42.4%
42.4%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+2.4%vs his norm —
224 / 50 BBE
Barrel %7.6%
norm7.6%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.4%vs his norm +0.8% ▲
224 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.307
believable since Jun 25.307*
lg avg .315 ▼−.008vs his norm —
345 / 160 PA
wOBA.271
.271*
lg avg .315 ▼−.044vs his norm —
345 / 200 PA
Strikeout %26.7%
26.7%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+4.7%vs his norm —
345 / 60 PA
Walk %8.1%
8.1%*
lg avg 8.5% ▼−0.4%vs his norm —
345 / 120 PA
BABIP.256
norm.256*
lg avg .295 ▼−.039vs his norm −.045 ▼BABIP is below his ~.301 norm — expect it to rise.
224 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %13.3%
13.3%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+2.3%vs his norm —
345 / 50 PA
Chase %31.2%
31.2%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+2.7%vs his norm —
345 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 7.6%→7.2%signal0 HR — Barrel% 7.6% (signal) tempered to career ~6.8% → projected 7.2%.
BABIP 0.256→0.286 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.256 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.297 (xBA 0.240) → 0.286.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.
slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (2 in 40 G) over ~0 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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