Is Patrick Bailey a buy or sell for fantasy baseball?

Buy Low — underlying skill is better than results suggest; buy while the price is depressed.

What is Patrick Bailey's rest-of-season outlook?

BABIP .253 hides 41.5% hard-hit contact and a .041 xwOBA gap.

307 PA · week 25

this weekBUY-LOW

last weekBUY-LOW

Patrick Bailey

CLE·C

data as of September 10, 2026·week 25

Buy Low contact quality already past its threshold and intact, the bat is fine — BABIP 0.253 suppressed and unstable, dragging results below the bat; buy the player, not the number.med 0.68

ROSHR 0AVG .225R 2RBI 3SB 1

Bailey is a buy-low — his BABIP is hiding the bat.

His hard-hit rate has stepped up across the sample and now sits at 41.5%, above the league average of 40.0%, with 205 batted balls behind it — well past the point where contact quality becomes trustworthy. His average exit velocity is 90.3 mph, above league, so the contact is intact. The problem is on the surface: his wOBA is .268 and his BABIP is .253 against a league average of .295. BABIP needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable and he has 205, so that gap is luck, not a verdict on his hitting. His expected wOBA of .309 sits nearly league average and sits .041 above his actual line. The bat is fine; the bounces are missing. Buy low. Even so, 0 HR / 2 R / 3 RBI / 1 SB / .225 AVG is drop-tier — waiver fare, not a stash.

VS His Norm

Barrel %6.8%—+0.0% ▲vs his ~6.8% career norm

Drivers

babipNOISEBABIP 0.253 suppressed and unstable — dragging results below the bat
hard_hit_pctSIGNALcontact quality already past its threshold and intact — the bat is fine

metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?

Avg Exit Velo90.3 mph

lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+1.3 mphvs his norm —

205 / 50 BBE

Hard-Hit %41.5%

lg avg 40.0% ▲+1.5%vs his norm —

205 / 50 BBE

Barrel %6.8%

lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.2%vs his norm +0.0% ▲

205 / 60 BBE

xwOBA.309

lg avg .315 ▼−.006vs his norm —

307 / 160 PA

wOBA.268

lg avg .315 ▼−.047vs his norm —

307 / 200 PA

Strikeout %24.8%

lg avg 22.0% ▲+2.8%vs his norm —

307 / 60 PA

Walk %8.5%

lg avg 8.5% 0.0%vs his norm —

307 / 120 PA

BABIP.253

lg avg .295 ▼−.042vs his norm −.049 ▼BABIP is below his ~.301 norm — expect it to rise.

205 / 800 BIP

Swinging-Strike %13.3%

lg avg 11.0% ▲+2.3%vs his norm —

307 / 50 PA

Chase %31.2%

lg avg 28.5% ▲+2.7%vs his norm —

307 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf

Barrel% 6.8%→6.8%signal0 HR — Barrel% 6.8% (signal) tempered to career ~6.8% → projected 6.8%.

BABIP 0.253→0.290 regressednoise.225 AVG — BABIP 0.253 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.302 (xBA 0.244) → 0.290.

on-base + lineup2 R — his run rate over ~35 projected PA.

slugging + lineup3 RBI — his RBI rate over ~35 projected PA.

run rate / role1 SB — his steal rate (2 in 40 G) over ~35 projected PA.

rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

VS His Norm

Drivers

5×5 ROS Outlook

Comparisons