149 PA · week 27
this weekBUY-LOW
last week—
Jimmy Crooks
data as of September 30, 2026·week 27
Buy Low contact quality already past its threshold and intact, the bat is fine; strikeout rate 32% is stable and high, caps the floor — BABIP 0.232 suppressed and unstable, dragging results below the bat; buy the player, not the number.med 0.66 (narrative held for review)
ROSHR 0AVG .000R 0RBI 0SB 0
Crooks is a buy-low — the results are BABIP, not the bat.
Cold results, but stable contact quality and a depressed BABIP say the slump is noise. Buy low.
Drivers
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.232 suppressed and unstable — dragging results below the bat
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALcontact quality already past its threshold and intact — the bat is fine
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 32% is stable and high — caps the floor
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo91.7 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+2.7 mphvs his norm —
87 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %48.3%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+8.3%vs his norm —
87 / 50 BBE
Barrel %11.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.5%vs his norm —
87 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.294
lg avg .315 ▼−.021vs his norm —xwOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
149 / 160 PA
wOBA.264
lg avg .315 ▼−.051vs his norm —wOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
149 / 200 PA
Strikeout %32.2%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+10.2%vs his norm —
149 / 60 PA
Walk %6.0%
lg avg 8.5% ▼−2.5%vs his norm —
149 / 120 PA
BABIP.232
lg avg .295 ▼−.063vs his norm —BABIP is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
87 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %17.0%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+6.0%vs his norm —
149 / 50 PA
Chase %36.3%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+7.8%vs his norm —
149 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 11.5%→10.8%signal0 HR — Barrel% 11.5% (signal) tempered to league ~8.0% → projected 10.8%.
BABIP 0.232→0.319 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.232 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.330 (xBA 0.198) → 0.319.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.
slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 2 G) over ~0 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.