117 PA · week 18
this weekBUY-LOW
last weekHOLD
Blaze Jordan
data as of July 29, 2026·week 18
flipped from HOLD on July 29, 2026
Buy Low contact quality already past its threshold and intact, the bat is fine — BABIP 0.250 suppressed and unstable, dragging results below the bat; buy the player, not the number.med 0.69 (narrative held for review)
ROSHR 2AVG .188R 31RBI 61SB 0
Blaze Jordan is a buy-low — BABIP slump, not bat slump.
Cold results, but stable contact quality and a depressed BABIP say the slump is noise. Buy low.
Drivers
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.250 suppressed and unstable — dragging results below the bat
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALcontact quality already past its threshold and intact — the bat is fine
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo89.2 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+0.2 mphvs his norm —
97 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %45.4%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+5.4%vs his norm —
97 / 50 BBE
Barrel %7.2%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.8%vs his norm —
97 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.304
lg avg .315 ▼−.011vs his norm —xwOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
117 / 160 PA
wOBA.257
lg avg .315 ▼−.058vs his norm —wOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
117 / 200 PA
Strikeout %12.8%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−9.2%vs his norm —
117 / 60 PA
Walk %4.3%
lg avg 8.5% ▼−4.2%vs his norm —Walk % is below the ~8.5% league average — expect it to rise.
117 / 120 PA
BABIP.250
lg avg .295 ▼−.045vs his norm —BABIP is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
97 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.3%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.3%vs his norm —
117 / 50 PA
Chase %34.0%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+5.5%vs his norm —
117 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 7.2%→7.4%signal2 HR — Barrel% 7.2% (signal) lifted to league ~8.0% → projected 7.4%.
BABIP 0.250→0.232 regressednoise.188 AVG — BABIP 0.250 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.230 (xBA 0.260) → 0.232.
on-base + lineup31 R — his run rate over ~123 projected PA.
slugging + lineup61 RBI — his RBI rate over ~123 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 2 G) over ~123 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.