MLB Daily DeltaWeek 27 · September 27, 2026
199 PA · week 27
this weekBUY-LOW
last weekBUY-LOW

Blaze Jordan

STL·3B
data as of September 27, 2026·week 27
ON THE 10-DAY IL
Buy Low contact quality already past its threshold and intact, the bat is fine — BABIP 0.274 suppressed and unstable, dragging results below the bat; buy the player, not the number.med 0.67
ROSHR 0AVG .000R 0RBI 0SB 0

Jordan is a buy-low — the slump is BABIP, not his bat.

His hard-hit rate is 45%, above the 40% league average, and it has been stepping up as the season has gone on. His barrel rate and exit velocity confirm the contact is intact, and that sample of 160 batted balls is past the point where those numbers become reliable. The problem is his BABIP: .274 against a league average of .295, and BABIP needs around 800 balls in play to be trustworthy. He has 160. That gap is luck, not skill. His actual wOBA is .284, but his expected wOBA is .317 — right at league average — and his strikeout rate is well below league. The bat is real; the results are not. Buy low.

Drivers

  • babipNOISEBABIP 0.274 suppressed and unstable — dragging results below the bat
  • hard_hit_pctSIGNALcontact quality already past its threshold and intact — the bat is fine
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo88.4 mph
88.4 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−0.6 mphvs his norm —
160 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %45.0%
45.0%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+5.0%vs his norm —
160 / 50 BBE
Barrel %10.0%
10.0%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.0%vs his norm —
160 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.317
.317*
lg avg .315 ▲+.002vs his norm —
199 / 160 PA
wOBA.284
.284*
lg avg .315 ▼−.031vs his norm —wOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
199 / 200 PA
Strikeout %15.1%
15.1%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−6.9%vs his norm —
199 / 60 PA
Walk %3.5%
3.5%*
lg avg 8.5% ▼−5.0%vs his norm —
199 / 120 PA
BABIP.274
.274*
lg avg .295 ▼−.021vs his norm —BABIP is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
160 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.3%
11.3%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.3%vs his norm —
199 / 50 PA
Chase %35.7%
35.7%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+7.2%vs his norm —
199 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 10.0%→9.6%signal0 HR — Barrel% 10.0% (signal) tempered to league ~8.0% → projected 9.6%.
BABIP 0.274→0.239 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.274 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.230 (xBA 0.266) → 0.239.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.
slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 2 G) over ~0 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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