MLB Daily DeltaWeek 27 · September 27, 2026
242 PA · week 27
this weekBUY-LOW
last weekBUY-LOW

Ke'Bryan Hayes

data as of September 27, 2026·week 27
Buy Low contact quality already past its threshold and intact, the bat is fine — BABIP 0.155 suppressed and unstable, dragging results below the bat; buy the player, not the number.high 0.79 (narrative held for review)
ROSHR 0AVG .000R 0RBI 0SB 0

Hayes is a buy-low — the slump is BABIP noise, not his bat.

Cold results, but stable contact quality and a depressed BABIP say the slump is noise. Buy low.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %6.7%—+1.7% ▲vs his ~5.0% career norm

Drivers

  • babipNOISEBABIP 0.155 suppressed and unstable — dragging results below the bat
  • hard_hit_pctSIGNALcontact quality already past its threshold and intact — the bat is fine
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo90.4 mph
90.4 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+1.4 mphvs his norm —
179 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %38.5%
38.5%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−1.5%vs his norm —
179 / 50 BBE
Barrel %6.7%
norm6.7%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.3%vs his norm +1.7% ▲
179 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.287
.287*
lg avg .315 ▼−.028vs his norm —
242 / 160 PA
wOBA.191
.191*
lg avg .315 ▼−.124vs his norm —
242 / 200 PA
Strikeout %19.8%
19.8%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−2.2%vs his norm —
242 / 60 PA
Walk %5.4%
5.4%*
lg avg 8.5% ▼−3.1%vs his norm —
242 / 120 PA
BABIP.155
norm.155*
lg avg .295 ▼−.140vs his norm −.139 ▼BABIP is below his ~.294 norm — expect it to rise.
179 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.8%
10.8%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.2%vs his norm —
242 / 50 PA
Chase %30.9%
30.9%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+2.4%vs his norm —
242 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 6.7%→5.8%signal0 HR — Barrel% 6.7% (signal) tempered to career ~5.0% → projected 5.8%.
BABIP 0.155→0.241 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.155 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.265 (xBA 0.236) → 0.241.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.
slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (1 in 44 G) over ~0 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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