152 PA · week 18
this weekBUY-LOW
last weekBUY-LOW
Ke'Bryan Hayes
data as of July 28, 2026·week 18
Buy Low contact quality already past its threshold and intact, the bat is fine — BABIP 0.158 suppressed and unstable, dragging results below the bat; buy the player, not the number.high 0.82 (narrative held for review)
ROSHR 2AVG .238R 10RBI 5SB 1
Hayes is a buy-low — depressed BABIP, contact intact.
Cold results, but stable contact quality and a depressed BABIP say the slump is noise. Buy low.
VS His Norm
- Barrel %7.7%—+2.7% ▲vs his ~5.0% career norm
Drivers
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.158 suppressed and unstable — dragging results below the bat
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALcontact quality already past its threshold and intact — the bat is fine
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo90.9 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+1.9 mphvs his norm —
117 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %39.3%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−0.7%vs his norm —
117 / 50 BBE
Barrel %7.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.3%vs his norm +2.7% ▲
117 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.310
lg avg .315 ▼−.005vs his norm —xwOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
152 / 160 PA
wOBA.201
lg avg .315 ▼−.114vs his norm —wOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
152 / 200 PA
Strikeout %16.4%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−5.6%vs his norm —
152 / 60 PA
Walk %5.9%
lg avg 8.5% ▼−2.6%vs his norm —
152 / 120 PA
BABIP.158
lg avg .295 ▼−.137vs his norm −.136 ▼BABIP is below his ~.294 norm — expect it to rise.
117 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %9.0%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−2.0%vs his norm —
152 / 50 PA
Chase %29.2%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+0.7%vs his norm —
152 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 7.7%→6.0%signal2 HR — Barrel% 7.7% (signal) tempered to career ~5.0% → projected 6.0%.
BABIP 0.158→0.272 regressednoise.238 AVG — BABIP 0.158 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.292 (xBA 0.258) → 0.272.
on-base + lineup10 R — his run rate over ~131 projected PA.
slugging + lineup5 RBI — his RBI rate over ~131 projected PA.
run rate / role1 SB — his steal rate (1 in 44 G) over ~131 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.