MLB Daily DeltaWeek 12 · June 13, 2026
128 PA · week 12
this weekBUY-LOW
last week

Ke'Bryan Hayes

data as of June 13, 2026·week 12
ON THE 10-DAY IL
Buy Low contact quality already past its threshold and intact, the bat is fine — BABIP 0.153 suppressed and unstable, dragging results below the bat; buy the player, not the number.high 0.84 (narrative held for review)
ROSHR 6AVG .247R 20RBI 10SB 2

Hayes is a buy-low — the slug line is BABIP noise, not his bat.

Cold results, but stable contact quality and a depressed BABIP say the slump is noise. Buy low.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %9.0%+4.0%vs his ~5.0% career norm

Drivers

  • babipNOISEBABIP 0.153 suppressed and unstable — dragging results below the bat
  • hard_hit_pctSIGNALcontact quality already past its threshold and intact — the bat is fine
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo90.5 mph
90.5 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph +1.5 mphvs his norm —
100 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %39.0%
39.0%*
lg avg 40.0% −1.0%vs his norm —
100 / 50 BBE
Barrel %9.0%
norm9.0%*
lg avg 8.0% +1.0%vs his norm +4.0%
100 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.312
.312*
lg avg .315 −.003vs his norm —xwOBA is below the ~.315 league averageexpect it to rise.
128 / 160 PA
wOBA.192
.192*
lg avg .315 −.123vs his norm —wOBA is below the ~.315 league averageexpect it to rise.
128 / 200 PA
Strikeout %15.6%
15.6%*
lg avg 22.0% −6.4%vs his norm —
128 / 60 PA
Walk %6.3%
6.3%*
lg avg 8.5% −2.2%vs his norm —
128 / 120 PA
BABIP.153
norm.153*
lg avg .295 −.142vs his norm −.141 BABIP is below his ~.294 normexpect it to rise.
100 / 800 BIP

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 9.0%→6.3%signal6 HR — Barrel% 9.0% (signal) tempered to career ~5.0% → projected 6.3%.
BABIP 0.153→0.275 regressednoise.247 AVG — BABIP 0.153 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.293 (xBA 0.259) → 0.275.
on-base + lineup20 R — his run rate over ~256 projected PA.
slugging + lineup10 RBI — his RBI rate over ~256 projected PA.
run rate / role2 SB — his steal rate (1 in 44 G) over ~256 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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