128 PA · week 12
this weekBUY-LOW
last week—
Ke'Bryan Hayes
data as of June 13, 2026·week 12
ON THE 10-DAY IL
Buy Low contact quality already past its threshold and intact, the bat is fine — BABIP 0.153 suppressed and unstable, dragging results below the bat; buy the player, not the number.high 0.84 (narrative held for review)
ROSHR 6AVG .247R 20RBI 10SB 2
Hayes is a buy-low — the slug line is BABIP noise, not his bat.
Cold results, but stable contact quality and a depressed BABIP say the slump is noise. Buy low.
VS His Norm
- Barrel %9.0%—+4.0% ▲vs his ~5.0% career norm
Drivers
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.153 suppressed and unstable — dragging results below the bat
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALcontact quality already past its threshold and intact — the bat is fine
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo90.5 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+1.5 mphvs his norm —
100 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %39.0%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−1.0%vs his norm —
100 / 50 BBE
Barrel %9.0%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.0%vs his norm +4.0% ▲
100 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.312
lg avg .315 ▼−.003vs his norm —xwOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
128 / 160 PA
wOBA.192
lg avg .315 ▼−.123vs his norm —wOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
128 / 200 PA
Strikeout %15.6%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−6.4%vs his norm —
128 / 60 PA
Walk %6.3%
lg avg 8.5% ▼−2.2%vs his norm —
128 / 120 PA
BABIP.153
lg avg .295 ▼−.142vs his norm −.141 ▼BABIP is below his ~.294 norm — expect it to rise.
100 / 800 BIP
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 9.0%→6.3%signal6 HR — Barrel% 9.0% (signal) tempered to career ~5.0% → projected 6.3%.
BABIP 0.153→0.275 regressednoise.247 AVG — BABIP 0.153 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.293 (xBA 0.259) → 0.275.
on-base + lineup20 R — his run rate over ~256 projected PA.
slugging + lineup10 RBI — his RBI rate over ~256 projected PA.
run rate / role2 SB — his steal rate (1 in 44 G) over ~256 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.