Sells — league-wide

15.5% strikeouts can't sustain a 2.62 ERA.

3.21 ERA hides a 4.42 xERA and .260 BABIP luck.

3.59 ERA hides a 4.82 xERA and 12% walk rate.

0.204 BABIP props up 1.83 ERA over 3.03 xERA

ERA 4.55 hides a 6.23 xERA and 16% strikeouts.

3.58 ERA hides 5.02 xERA and a 15.6% strikeout rate.

14.6% strikeout rate; .260 BABIP masks a 5.69 xERA

.221 BABIP masks a 19% K rate and 4.60 xERA

BABIP-against .204 versus .295 league — 1.44 ERA won't hold

4.34 ERA hides 5.19 xERA; .261 BABIP won't hold

2.44 ERA hides a 3.37 xERA; .251 BABIP won't hold.

15% strikeouts with a 3.10 ERA flatters him.

3.36 ERA hides a 4.3 xERA and .255 BABIP-against.

2.41 ERA hides a 15.5% strikeout rate and .240 BABIP

3.21 ERA hides 4.24 xERA and a 14% walk rate.

4.37 ERA hides a 5.99 xERA and 18% strikeout rate

13.6% strikeout rate can't hold a 1.77 ERA forever.

2.56 ERA hides 3.84 xERA; .246 BABIP against won't hold

3.44 ERA hides a 5.05 xERA and 18% strikeouts.

3.04 ERA masks 4.51 xERA; 17% K rate won't hold it

.146 BABIP-against won't hold; xERA sits at 3.30

1.06 ERA hides a 3.35 xERA and .240 BABIP luck.

16% strikeouts can't sustain a 3.83 ERA over 4.79 xERA

BABIP-against .192 won't hold; 37% K rate is real.

2.68 ERA but 3.89 xERA — a run of luck

3.34 ERA hides a 4.73 xERA and 18.8% K rate.

1.95 ERA hides a 2.85 xERA, so profit now.

.220 BABIP against is propping up a 2.67 ERA over 3.89 xERA

16% strikeout rate can't hold a 3.28 ERA.

13.7% strikeout rate with a .190 BABIP masking a 5.77 xERA.

1.59 ERA rides a .230 BABIP; xERA says 3.68

2.04 ERA hides a 4.79 xERA and 18% strikeouts.

xERA 2.81 backs the arm; ERA gap is small change.

3.40 ERA hides a 4.30 xERA and 10.9% walk rate.

1.91 ERA masked by .179 BABIP; 14.5% walks erode the gains.

3.67 ERA propped up by .273 BABIP; xERA says 5.58

2.90 ERA hides a 4.30 xERA and 18% strikeouts

2.96 ERA hides a 4.42 xERA and 15.6% strikeouts.

1.91 ERA masks a 3.08 xERA; 17% K rate can't hold it.

3.63 ERA hides 4.48 xERA and 16.7% strikeouts

18.5% strikeout rate can't hold a 3.91 ERA up

3.35 ERA hides 4.95 xERA; 15.8% K rate won't hold

2.30 ERA hides a 3.65 xERA and 12.7% walk rate

2.73 ERA hides a 3.87 xERA; BABIP-against .243 won't hold

10.8% strikeout rate: 5.06 ERA hides a 6.07 xERA

2.75 ERA hides a .248 BABIP; xERA says 3.84.

.230 BABIP fuels 2.13 ERA, but xERA sits at 3.13

3.66 ERA hides a 4.54 xERA; low BABIP won't save it

3.33 ERA masks a 4.27 xERA — sell before it catches up

3.42 ERA hides 4.51 xERA; only 18.7% K rate

15.6% strikeouts and 13% walks — nothing under the 5.30 ERA

3.32 ERA hides a 4.01 xERA; .246 BABIP won't hold.

0.188 BABIP-against won't hold; xERA already 1.93.

10.8% strikeout rate; .236 BABIP hides a 5.73 xERA

2.42 ERA hides 3.01 xERA and 18.4% strikeout rate.

15.5% strikeout rate hides a 5.05 xERA.

0.259 BABIP-against .295; ERA 3.11 vs xERA 3.70

2.56 ERA hides a 3.15 xERA — sell before it corrects.

0.255 BABIP masks a 4.27 xERA and 10.5% walk rate.

.253 BABIP masks a 3.87 xERA and 18.6% strikeout rate.

.223 BABIP against is noise; 2.94 xERA still says regression

ERA 2.84 rides .265 BABIP; xERA sits 3.63.

A .224 BABIP props up a 3.5 xERA and 11% walk rate.

6.19 xERA says the 5.40 ERA flatters him.

5.23 xERA under a 4.43 — 16% strikeouts can't hold that.

BABIP-against .260 masks a modest 18.7% strikeout rate

15.7% strikeouts can't survive a .240 BABIP

3.90 ERA hides a 4.42 xERA; walks near 11% offset Ks

BABIP-against .184 won't hold; 30.6% K rate is real

35% K rate masks an 11.4% walk problem

.254 BABIP-against props up a 2.94 ERA over 3.70 xERA

BABIP-against .197 against a .295 league norm — regression inbound.

.319 wOBA on .248 xwOBA; 1.2% barrels can't sustain it.

28% Ks but 12% walks; xERA 3.32 not 2.86

0.250 BABIP against is doing the work; xERA 4.15 says ordinary.

2.90 ERA but xERA 3.35 — selling a soft-contact mirage.

.316 wOBA over a .246 xwOBA, 1.7% barrels — all BABIP luck.

3.76 ERA hides a 4.21 xERA and 11.5% walks

30% strikeouts real, but 10.8% walk rate caps the ERA mirage.

.208 BABIP against — 87 points of luck under that 1.98 ERA.

BABIP-against .251 masks the gap; xERA already 3.06.

17.9% strikeouts and a .250 BABIP propping up 3.23 ERA.

xERA 2.88 backs it up, but 0.27 BABIP won't hold

3.87 ERA hides a 4.27 xERA; BABIP is doing the work.

29.9% Ks but 15.3% walks undercut the 3.73 ERA

BABIP-against .217 won't hold; xERA 2.94 still elite

2.08 ERA but 23% Ks give him no real cushion

16.8% strikeout rate and .228 BABIP can't both hold

xwOBA .261 under a .317 wOBA — results outrunning 85.8 mph contact

.410 BABIP masks 84.7 mph exit velo and 20% hard-hit.

xERA 5.3 and 17.6% K rate: regression is coming.

BABIP-against .160 won't hold — .295 is the league norm.

11.6% strikeout rate, yet xERA 7.72 says it's earned.

83 mph exit velo, .091 wOBA over xwOBA — contact won't hold

.434 BABIP masks 25% hard-hit, 86 mph bat and .309 xwOBA.

.342 BABIP floats a .373 wOBA over a .327 xwOBA

.207 BABIP against won't hold; xERA sits at 3.10

8% strikeouts prop up a .342 wOBA over .295 xwOBA.

BABIP .336 masking a .285 xwOBA and 31.9% hard-hit

38.5% Ks under a .415 BABIP — pure noise.

.417 BABIP propping up a .311 xwOBA and 1.6% barrels.

BABIP .355 masks a .329 xwOBA; contact isn't carrying it

84.3 mph exit velo can't sustain a .331 BABIP

.208 BABIP masks a 16.4% strikeout rate and 4.42 xERA

23.9% hard-hit behind a .277 wOBA — contact won't hold

Barrel rate 13% carries a .383 wOBA .039 over expected

10.5% K rate masks a .289 xwOBA and 5% barrels

32.9% Ks real, but .229 BABIP-against won't hold

37.6% strikeout rate caps a 19.9% barrel bat

32.7% K rate with a .245 xwOBA — sell the .328 BABIP mirage.

BABIP .339 masks .301 xwOBA and 87 mph exit velo

Hard-Hit 49.8% but wOBA outruns xwOBA by 35 points.

.343 BABIP masks a .316 xwOBA — 36-point overpay

.333 BABIP riding a 31-point wOBA over xwOBA

wOBA .313 outruns xwOBA .280; 32% hard-hit can't sustain it

14.6% strikeout rate, .245 BABIP masking a 5.51 xERA

BABIP-against .173 versus .295 league — pure noise propping up the ERA.

.404 BABIP floats a .433 wOBA over a .372 xwOBA

83 mph exit velo, 1.4% barrels — contact won't hold

.412 BABIP masks a .258 xwOBA and 29% strikeouts.

39% strikeouts but a .371 BABIP is propping up the line

84.7 mph exit velo can't sustain a .351 BABIP

33% strikeout rate and .233 xwOBA undercut the .271 wOBA

.333 BABIP inflates a .335 wOBA over .299 xwOBA

BABIP .333 masks a .287 xwOBA and 31% hard-hit.

3.90 ERA hides a 5.54 xERA and 14.8% K rate.

13.9% strikeout rate, 5.77 xERA — the 4.40 ERA is a mirage.

3.95 ERA hiding a 5.37 xERA and 16% strikeouts.

5.96 xERA; .249 BABIP masks him from getting shelled.

13% walk rate with a .248 BABIP propping up the ERA.

4.30 ERA hides a 5.51 xERA; 13% walks sink him.

xERA 5.62 confirms the 5.57 — no soft contact hiding it.

xERA 5.69, 19% K rate — nothing fluky about this ERA.

xERA 6.35 says the 4.94 ERA is flattering him badly.

13.6% strikeout rate can't survive a .384 xwOBA allowed.

4.34 ERA hides a 5.37 xERA; 17% K rate won't save it.

5.96 ERA is no fluke; 5.4 xERA backs the bleed

xERA 5.99 and only 17.4% strikeouts — nothing fluky about it.

xERA 6.47 hides behind a flattering 4.97 ERA

17% K rate, .353 xwOBA allowed — nothing misses bats.

11.8% strikeout rate half the league — xERA 5.58 agrees

14.6% strikeout rate, 6.35 xERA — contact finding grass

14% strikeout rate can't miss bats at Coors.

5.77 xERA hides behind a 4.30, walking 12.6%

xERA 5.37 with a 10.2% walk rate; no ERA luck here.

14.5% walk rate — 5.37 xERA has real command problem behind it

13.2% walk rate inflates xERA to 5.16 — ugly under the hood.

13.1% walk rate and a 5.09 xERA to match

17.8% strikeout rate with a .343 xwOBA allowed — no escape hatch.

5.02 xERA and .336 BABIP-against — good hitters' profile.

17.8% strikeout rate won't sustain that .248 BABIP.

18% strikeouts, 5.05 xERA — the 4.44 ERA is a mirage.

4.09 ERA hides a 5.02 xERA and 19% strikeout rate.

12.3% walk rate inflates xERA to 5.02 — no soft contact bailing him out.

4.08 ERA hides a 4.99 xERA; walks 10.5%

17.8% strikeout rate won't bail out a 4.95 xERA

4.01 ERA hides a 4.95 xERA — nearly a run of luck.

ERA 4.05 hides a 4.95 xERA; walks 11.2% undercut it.

10% walks, xERA 4.95 — nothing but the free pass carrying him

16% strikeout rate can't sustain a .334 BABIP forever.

18% K rate with 10.4% walks and a 4.92 xERA.

xERA 4.92, K rate down to 19.9%

3.95 ERA hides a 4.89 xERA and 18% strikeouts

3.66 ERA hides a 4.89 xERA and .330 BABIP luck

18.3% strikeouts can't support a 4.33 ERA — xERA says 4.89

16.8% strikeout rate won't miss bats at Coors.

18% strikeouts and a .336 xwOBA allowed won't hold.

.383 BABIP masks that xERA still sits at 4.86

3.51 ERA hides 4.86 xERA; 15.3% K rate can't sustain it.

xERA 4.82, xwOBA .335 allowed — below-average under the hood

14.8% walk rate is the real problem, not the .237 BABIP

BABIP-against .338 will regress, but 4.76 xERA stays mediocre.

xERA 4.76 with a .323 BABIP hole behind him

18.8% strikeout rate won't miss bats or limit damage.

10.1% walk rate and xERA 4.76 — nothing lucky here.

xwOBA allowed .333 with zero luck gap to blame

3.94 ERA hides 4.69 xERA and 19.8% strikeout rate

4.00 ERA hides a 4.69 xERA — nearly seven-tenths of luck

5.56 ERA over 4.69 xERA, but 19.6% K-rate doesn't fix it

17% strikeout rate won't miss bats at this xERA

xERA 4.66 outpaces his 4.11 ERA — regression owed.

84 mph exit velo, 26.5% hard-hit — no contact foundation

82 mph exit velo, 11.9% hard-hit — no contact foundation.

xwOBA .237 with a 30% hard-hit rate — no hidden upside.

xwOBA .233 with a 22.6% hard-hit — soft contact kills

3.86 ERA masks a 4.6 xERA; walks near 10%

28.4% strikeout rate, but xERA 4.6 still above league

28.7% K rate undone by 15.1% walks allowed.

12.1% walk rate undermines a forgettable 4.57 xERA.

31.7% strikeouts, 84.8 mph exit velo — bat can't save it

21.9% hard-hit and a .251 xwOBA — no thump at all.

32% strikeouts and a .248 xwOBA to boot

86 mph exit velo and .257 xwOBA — nothing under the hood

Strikeouts just 10.4% — half the league rate at xERA 4.51.

xwOBA .256 with 28% strikeouts — contact can't carry it

5.70 ERA masks a modest 4.51 xERA; walks at 11%.

31.7% strikeouts with a .253 xwOBA and 3.7% barrels

.255 xwOBA with a 2.6% barrel rate — no pop whatsoever

15.3% strikeout rate; 3.59 ERA masks a 4.48 xERA

21.4% K rate and a 9.5% walk rate — no upside here

84.2 mph exit velo, 20.8% hard-hit — contact can't carry the 9% K rate.

3.91 ERA hides a 4.45 xERA — half-run mirage

3.92 ERA hides 4.45 xERA; walks and .327 BABIP won't hold.

26.5% hard-hit behind an 84.4 mph average — no thump.

BABIP-against .320 masks a 4.45 xERA, thin margin

3.35 ERA hides a 4.45 xERA — sell the gap.

31.8% strikeouts with a .261 xwOBA — bat can't hold up.

Hard-hit rate 33% and barrels 4.3% — .264 xwOBA is real.

83.7 mph, zero barrels, 13.6% hard-hit — the wOBA is a mirage.

xwOBA .267 with mediocre pop — wOBA overstates the bat

16% strikeouts, 0.278 BABIP propping up a 3.64 ERA.

xwOBA .267 with 86.8 mph exit velo — thin contact profile.

31.9% strikeouts with an xwOBA of .263 — no contact floor

5.40 ERA but 4.42 xERA — just under a run of noise.

29.8% strikeouts with a .267 xwOBA won't play

xwOBA .265 with 86.7 mph exit velo — no gap to blame on luck

2.7% barrel rate and 85.6 mph exit velo — no power base

29% hard-hit with 87.5 exit velo — no contact thump

86.6 mph exit velo and a 1.5% barrel rate — no thump.

31% strikeout rate drags a .272 xwOBA to the bench

xwOBA .269 — weakest catcher contact in the league.

84.7 mph exit velo, zero barrels, .270 xwOBA — contact can't carry it.

3.5% barrel rate with 88.5 mph exit velo — empty contact.

30% strikeouts with a .272 xwOBA — no contact floor.

xwOBA .271 and 86 mph exit velo — weak contact, real.

85.6 mph exit velo — the contact is hollowing out.

22% hard-hit, 0.9% barrels: nothing behind the contact

29.7% hard-hit contact — no barrels, no floor at second.

0.273 xwOBA with a 4.3% barrel rate — empty power.

73rd-percentile contact, but 2.3% barrels and 85 mph exit velo

24.9% hard-hit with 85 mph exit velo — no power base

85.9 mph exit velo and 30% hard-hit — soft contact, no luck gap

27.7% hard-hit and .273 xwOBA — contact is hollow

82.7 mph exit velo, 32% Ks: speed can't hide that bat

Hard-hit 27.9% and 86.8 mph exit velo can't support .293 wOBA

Barrel rate 4.1% and xwOBA .273 — no power floor.

83.6 mph exit velo, 16% hard-hit — contact can't survive

32.5% strikeout rate and a .278 xwOBA to match

87.6 mph exit velo, 35% hard-hit — the power just isn't there

xwOBA .281 but wOBA .316 — contact masking the gap

83.8 mph exit velo and 25.6% hard-hit — no carry here.

26.8% hard-hit contact caps him despite 9.9% strikeout rate

Barrel rate 3.8% and 87.8 mph exit velo cap the upside.

xwOBA .282 says the bat isn't real either

xwOBA .281 with 85.9 mph exit velo — no contact foundation.

xwOBA .281 with 87 mph exit velo; weak contact, no luck gap

87.3 mph exit velo and 33% hard-hit — thin contact profile

xwOBA .279 vs .322 wOBA — Coors inflates the surface.

Hard-hit rate 32% and 87 mph exit velo can't carry a catcher.

xwOBA .285 with just 27.8% hard-hit — surface masks a soft bat.

85.6 mph exit velo with a 30% hard-hit rate — no thump.

1.9% barrels with 87 mph exit velo — no power base.

2% barrels and 87 mph exit velo won't carry .284 xwOBA

Barrel rate 4.2% halves the league mark — xwOBA .285

86.3 mph exit velo and a 2.4% barrel rate — no thunder.

30.6% strikeout rate sinks a .284 xwOBA bat

31% hard-hit, 87 mph exit velo — contact can't carry the profile.

Barrels at 4.1% halve league; .315 wOBA floats on .284 xwOBA.

22.5% hard-hit with 85.8 mph exit velo — no power base.

xwOBA .283, exit velo 86.7 — quiet bat, no luck gap

32% strikeouts with an 88.5 mph bat won't play.

xwOBA .290 with 90.3 exit velo — below-average bat path

32% strikeout rate with .288 xwOBA — contact can't carry it.

85.9 mph exit velo undercuts a 17.9% strikeout rate.

26% hard-hit with an 86.5 mph average — no thump in this bat

13.5% strikeout rate masks 86 mph contact and 2% barrels.

25.6% hard-hit speed with a 13% strikeout — empty contact

31.9% strikeouts with 88.9 mph exit velo can't hold

xwOBA .292 sits 23 points under league — thin contact

Barrel rate 4.8% and 87.9 mph exit velo — no pop here.

xwOBA .289 and 5.6% barrels — under league on both.

90 mph exits and 45% hard-hit, yet xwOBA stalls at .290.

83 mph exit velo, 25% hard-hit — contact can't carry the 13.5% K rate

27% hard-hit and 2.7% barrels; the contact is empty.

29.4% strikeouts with a .292 xwOBA — the whiff tax bites

82.9 mph exit velo and 21.5% hard-hit undercut the contact skill

Strikes out 31% while xwOBA sits at .291

27.5% strikeout rate and 87.4 mph exit velo won't hold up.

3.3% barrels — no thump behind the 21.8% K rate

xwOBA .295 and 25.3% strikeouts; wOBA barely over skill.

Contact-first profile, but 29% hard-hit caps the upside.

xwOBA .295 with 88.3 mph exit — nothing loud here

xwOBA .293 yet barrel rate only 6% — contact thinning

35.6% strikeout rate sinks the .294 xwOBA contact

29.5% strikeout rate sinks a .294 xwOBA bat

Hard contact is real, but 29.4% strikeouts cap the xwOBA at .297.

Barrel rate 4% with .297 xwOBA — contact dies.

Barrel rate 3.4% with a limp .293 xwOBA.

Just 3% barrels and 87 mph exit velo — empty average.

29.9% strikeouts and a 29.8% hard-hit rate; nothing under the hood.

27% strikeout rate with only 38% hard-hit contact won't hold

33% hard-hit with 87 mph exit velo — light contact.

82.5 mph exit velo, 25% hard-hit — contact dies on arrival

0.324 wOBA over a .295 xwOBA — catcher regression coming

28% strikeouts and 87.8 mph contact can't survive a .293 xwOBA

30% hard-hit and a 2.8% barrel rate kill the power

25.5% hard-hit with 85.5 mph exit velo — no thunder in this bat

31.5% strikeout rate caps a .297 xwOBA bat

Barrel rate 5.2% can't support a .293 wOBA.

29.7% hard-hit with 86.8 mph exit velo won't play.

27.5% strikeouts, 6.2% barrels — the swing can't back the line.

86 mph exit velo with 29.5% hard-hit — contact isn't carrying

Barrels at 4.5% — contact skill, zero thump.

30% strikeouts, 85 mph exit velo — the bat can't carry it

Barrel rate 5.9% and wOBA outrunning xwOBA by 24 points.

31.9% strikeouts erase the 12.4% barrel rate

87-mph exit velo, 26.5% Ks — no cheap power here

85 mph exit velo with a .049 wOBA overhang propping the line

87.5 mph exit velo caps a .326 wOBA that xwOBA pegs at .299.

87.6 mph exit velo and a .299 xwOBA — wOBA riding luck.

86.8 mph exit velo and 33% hard-hit — soft contact, no gap to blame.