79 PA · week 31
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
Zac Veen
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Sell High strikeout rate 39% is stable and high, caps the floor — BABIP 0.371 far above league and nowhere near stable, inflating the line; luck-free skill 0.275 is 0.052 below the surface, regression coming; sell into the hype before regression.med 0.68 (narrative held for review)
ROSAVG .000HR 0R 0RBI 0SB 0
Veen is a sell-high — his BABIP is carrying a line it can't hold.
Surface line inflated by an unsustainable BABIP; the stable skill is lower. Sell high.
Drivers
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.371 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaNOISEluck-free skill 0.275 is 0.052 below the surface — regression coming
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 39% is stable and high — caps the floor
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo87.4 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−1.6 mphvs his norm —Avg Exit Velo is below the ~89.0 mph league average — expect it to rise.
40 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %37.5%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−2.5%vs his norm —Hard-Hit % is below the ~40.0% league average — expect it to rise.
40 / 50 BBE
Barrel %7.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.5%vs his norm —Barrel % is below the ~8.0% league average — expect it to rise.
40 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.275
lg avg .315 ▼−.040vs his norm —xwOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
79 / 160 PA
wOBA.327
lg avg .315 ▲+.012vs his norm —wOBA is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
79 / 200 PA
Strikeout %39.2%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+17.2%vs his norm —
79 / 60 PA
Walk %8.9%
lg avg 8.5% ▲+0.4%vs his norm —Walk % is above the ~8.5% league average — expect it to fall.
79 / 120 PA
BABIP.371
lg avg .295 ▲+.076vs his norm —BABIP is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
40 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %22.4%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+11.4%vs his norm —
79 / 50 PA
Chase %41.8%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+13.3%vs his norm —
79 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 7.5%→7.6%noise0 HR — Barrel% 7.5% (noise) held to league ~8.0% → projected 7.6%.
BABIP 0.371→0.237 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.371 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.230 (xBA 0.194) → 0.237.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.
slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 4 G) over ~0 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.