72 PA · week 31
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
Brock Rodden
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Sell High strikeout rate 33% is stable and high, caps the floor — BABIP 0.316 far above league and nowhere near stable, inflating the line; luck-free skill 0.233 is 0.038 below the surface, regression coming; sell into the hype before regression.med 0.65 (narrative held for review)
ROSAVG .000HR 0R 0RBI 0SB 0
Rodden is a sell-high — the surface has BABIP inflation written on it.
Surface line inflated by an unsustainable BABIP; the stable skill is lower. Sell high.
Drivers
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.316 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaNOISEluck-free skill 0.233 is 0.038 below the surface — regression coming
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 33% is stable and high — caps the floor
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo88.0 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−1.0 mphvs his norm —Avg Exit Velo is below the ~89.0 mph league average — expect it to rise.
38 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %36.8%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−3.2%vs his norm —Hard-Hit % is below the ~40.0% league average — expect it to rise.
38 / 50 BBE
Barrel %5.3%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.7%vs his norm —Barrel % is below the ~8.0% league average — expect it to rise.
38 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.233
lg avg .315 ▼−.082vs his norm —xwOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
72 / 160 PA
wOBA.271
lg avg .315 ▼−.044vs his norm —wOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
72 / 200 PA
Strikeout %33.3%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+11.3%vs his norm —
72 / 60 PA
Walk %13.9%
lg avg 8.5% ▲+5.4%vs his norm —Walk % is above the ~8.5% league average — expect it to fall.
72 / 120 PA
BABIP.316
lg avg .295 ▲+.021vs his norm —BABIP is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
38 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %18.5%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+7.5%vs his norm —
72 / 50 PA
Chase %31.9%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+3.4%vs his norm —
72 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 5.3%→5.8%noise0 HR — Barrel% 5.3% (noise) lifted to league ~8.0% → projected 5.8%.
BABIP 0.316→0.272 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.316 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.270 (xBA 0.135) → 0.272.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.
slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 2 G) over ~0 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.