100 PA · week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekNO CALL
Jake Rogers
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
new call as of July 18, 2026
Hold · wait & see strikeout rate 30% is stable and high, caps the floor — skill near league average (0.254); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSAVG .174HR 4R 9RBI 9SB 2
Rogers is a hold — league-average contact, high Ks cap the ceiling.
ROS projects AVG .137 YTD → .174 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
Drivers
- xwobaNOISEskill near league average (0.254)
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 30% is stable and high — caps the floor
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo88.5 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−0.5 mphvs his norm —
58 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %37.9%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−2.1%vs his norm —
58 / 50 BBE
Barrel %8.6%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.6%vs his norm −2.1% ▼Barrel % is below his ~10.7% norm — expect it to rise.
58 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.254
lg avg .315 ▼−.061vs his norm —xwOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
100 / 160 PA
wOBA.269
lg avg .315 ▼−.046vs his norm —wOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
100 / 200 PA
Strikeout %30.0%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+8.0%vs his norm —
100 / 60 PA
Walk %11.0%
lg avg 8.5% ▲+2.5%vs his norm —Walk % is above the ~8.5% league average — expect it to fall.
100 / 120 PA
BABIP.222
lg avg .295 ▼−.073vs his norm −.034 ▼BABIP is below his ~.256 norm — expect it to rise.
58 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.8%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.8%vs his norm —
100 / 50 PA
Chase %27.4%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−1.1%vs his norm —
100 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 8.6%→10.2%noise4 HR — Barrel% 8.6% (noise) lifted to career ~10.7% → projected 10.2%.
BABIP 0.222→0.239 regressednoise.174 AVG — BABIP 0.222 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.240 (xBA 0.163) → 0.239.
on-base + lineup9 R — his run rate over ~139 projected PA.
slugging + lineup9 RBI — his RBI rate over ~139 projected PA.
run rate / role2 SB — his steal rate (1 in 20 G) over ~139 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.