MLB Daily DeltaWeek 18 · July 28, 2026
202 PA · week 18
this weekHOLD
last weekSELL

Jake Cronenworth

SD·2B
data as of July 28, 2026·week 18
flipped from SELL on July 28, 2026
Hold · steady skill near league average (0.312); hold steady — skill tracks near league, no edge either way.med 0.60
ROSAVG .233HR 2R 15RBI 5SB 1

Cronenworth is a hold — league-average skill with nothing to exploit.

His expected wOBA is .312, right around the league average of .315, and he has enough plate appearances for that number to be reliable. His contact quality sits slightly below league: 88.1 mph exit velocity, 34.8% hard-hit rate, and 5.3% barrel rate. His strikeout and walk rates are near average, with a 10.9% walk rate a bit above league. There is no luck story — his BABIP is not supplied, but his wOBA (.285) tracks below his xwOBA, a small reverse gap. The xwOBA has been stepping down across the sample, suggesting he is settling into his true level. Nothing here to buy or sell. Hold. 2 HR, 15 R, 5 RBI, 1 SB, .233 AVG — a deep-league streaming-only hold at best.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %5.3%—−1.0% ▼vs his ~6.3% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALskill near league average (0.312)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo88.1 mph
88.1 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−0.9 mphvs his norm —
132 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %34.8%
34.8%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−5.2%vs his norm —
132 / 50 BBE
Barrel %5.3%
norm5.3%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.7%vs his norm −1.0% ▼
132 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.312
.312*
lg avg .315 ▼−.003vs his norm —
202 / 160 PA
wOBA.285
believable since Jul 27.285*
lg avg .315 ▼−.030vs his norm —
202 / 200 PA
Strikeout %21.8%
21.8%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−0.2%vs his norm —
202 / 60 PA
Walk %10.9%
10.9%*
lg avg 8.5% ▲+2.4%vs his norm —
202 / 120 PA
BABIP.273
norm.273*
lg avg .295 ▼−.022vs his norm −.006 ▼BABIP is below his ~.279 norm — expect it to rise.
132 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.3%
10.3%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.7%vs his norm —
202 / 50 PA
Chase %27.3%
27.3%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−1.2%vs his norm —
202 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 5.3%→5.9%signal2 HR — Barrel% 5.3% (signal) lifted to career ~6.3% → projected 5.9%.
BABIP 0.273→0.290 regressednoise.233 AVG — BABIP 0.273 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.293 (xBA 0.241) → 0.290.
on-base + lineup15 R — his run rate over ~135 projected PA.
slugging + lineup5 RBI — his RBI rate over ~135 projected PA.
run rate / role1 SB — his steal rate (1 in 32 G) over ~135 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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