MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
74 PA · week 31
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH

Joshua Kuroda-Grauer

ATH·3B
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Sell High BABIP 0.417 far above league and nowhere near stable, inflating the line; luck-free skill 0.311 is 0.081 below the surface, regression coming; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.75
ROSHR 0AVG .000R 0RBI 0SB 0

Kuroda-Grauer is a sell-high — his .417 BABIP is carrying the line.

His actual wOBA is .392 against a .315 league average, and almost all of that gap sits on one number that will not hold: a .417 BABIP against a .295 league average. BABIP needs around 800 balls in play to become reliable. He has 61, so that gap is luck, not skill. His expected wOBA is .311, which is .081 below his actual line and below league average — that is the regression waiting. The contact quality backs the lower number: a 1.6% barrel rate against 8.0% league, hard-hit at 38.3% and slightly under league, exit velocity at 89.3 mph and essentially average. He does make contact — a 13.5% strikeout rate is well better than league — but making contact on balls in play is not the same as hitting them hard. Limited data: this call rests on the first stable sample of the season. The line is running ahead of the bat. Sell high. Projected 0 HR / 0 R / 0 RBI / 0 SB / .000 AVG makes him a drop, streaming-only; sell the inflated line before regression.

Drivers

  • babipNOISEBABIP 0.417 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
  • xwobaNOISEluck-free skill 0.311 is 0.081 below the surface — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo89.3 mph
89.3 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+0.3 mphvs his norm —
61 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %38.3%
38.3%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−1.7%vs his norm —
61 / 50 BBE
Barrel %1.6%
1.6%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−6.4%vs his norm —
61 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.311
.311*
lg avg .315 ▼−.004vs his norm —xwOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
74 / 160 PA
wOBA.392
.392*
lg avg .315 ▲+.077vs his norm —wOBA is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
74 / 200 PA
Strikeout %13.5%
13.5%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−8.5%vs his norm —
74 / 60 PA
Walk %2.7%
2.7%*
lg avg 8.5% ▼−5.8%vs his norm —Walk % is below the ~8.5% league average — expect it to rise.
74 / 120 PA
BABIP.417
.417*
lg avg .295 ▲+.122vs his norm —BABIP is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
61 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %9.2%
9.2%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.8%vs his norm —
74 / 50 PA
Chase %40.3%
40.3%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+11.8%vs his norm —
74 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 1.6%→2.9%signal0 HR — Barrel% 1.6% (signal) lifted to league ~8.0% → projected 2.9%.
BABIP 0.417→0.305 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.417 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.296 (xBA 0.296) → 0.305.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.
slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 2 G) over ~0 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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