MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
62 PA · week 25
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH

Joshua Kuroda-Grauer

ATH·3B
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
ON THE 60-DAY IL
Sell High BABIP 0.462 far above league and nowhere near stable, inflating the line; luck-free skill 0.327 is 0.116 below the surface, regression coming; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.84
ROSAVG .328HR 0R 5RBI 5SB 0

Kuroda-Grauer is a sell-high — his BABIP is holding up the line.

His wOBA is .443, but his expected wOBA is .327 — a gap of .116 that exists because his BABIP is .462, far above the .295 league average. BABIP is nowhere near reliable at 53 balls in play; it needs around 800 to stabilize, so that gap is luck, not skill. He makes plenty of contact — just 11.3% strikeouts and a 7.9% swinging-strike rate — so the hits fall when balls find grass and stop when they don't. This is limited data: no baseline, no trajectory, just the first 62 plate appearances of the season. The line is on the surface; the skill is underneath it. Sell high. Deep-league trade window only: 0 HR / 5 R / 5 RBI / 0 SB / .328 AVG is a sell, not a hold.

Drivers

  • babipNOISEBABIP 0.462 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
  • xwobaNOISEluck-free skill 0.327 is 0.116 below the surface — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo89.3 mph
89.3 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+0.3 mphvs his norm —
53 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %40.4%
40.4%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+0.4%vs his norm —
53 / 50 BBE
Barrel %1.9%
1.9%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−6.1%vs his norm —Barrel % is below the ~8.0% league average — expect it to rise.
53 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.327
.327*
lg avg .315 ▲+.012vs his norm —xwOBA is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
62 / 160 PA
wOBA.443
.443*
lg avg .315 ▲+.128vs his norm —wOBA is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
62 / 200 PA
Strikeout %11.3%
11.3%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−10.7%vs his norm —
62 / 60 PA
Walk %1.6%
1.6%*
lg avg 8.5% ▼−6.9%vs his norm —Walk % is below the ~8.5% league average — expect it to rise.
62 / 120 PA
BABIP.462
.462*
lg avg .295 ▲+.167vs his norm —BABIP is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
53 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %7.9%
7.9%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−3.1%vs his norm —
62 / 50 PA
Chase %40.0%
40.0%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+11.5%vs his norm —
62 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 1.9%→3.1%noise0 HR — Barrel% 1.9% (noise) lifted to league ~8.0% → projected 3.1%.
BABIP 0.462→0.324 regressednoise.328 AVG — BABIP 0.462 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.314 (xBA 0.314) → 0.324.
on-base + lineup5 R — his run rate over ~33 projected PA.
slugging + lineup5 RBI — his RBI rate over ~33 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 2 G) over ~33 projected PA.
rosterdeep.328 AVG

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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