173 PA · week 27
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
Brett Bateman
data as of September 27, 2026·week 27
Sell High luck-free skill 0.304 is 0.055 below the surface, regression coming — BABIP 0.397 far above league and nowhere near stable, inflating the line; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.79 (narrative held for review)
ROSHR 0AVG .000R 0RBI 0SB 0
Bateman is a sell-high — the BABIP is carrying the line
Surface line inflated by an unsustainable BABIP; the stable skill is lower. Sell high.
Drivers
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.397 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.304 is 0.055 below the surface — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo84.6 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−4.4 mphvs his norm —
120 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %20.0%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−20.0%vs his norm —
120 / 50 BBE
Barrel %1.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−6.3%vs his norm —
120 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.304
lg avg .315 ▼−.011vs his norm —
173 / 160 PA
wOBA.359
lg avg .315 ▲+.044vs his norm —wOBA is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
173 / 200 PA
Strikeout %19.7%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−2.3%vs his norm —
173 / 60 PA
Walk %9.8%
lg avg 8.5% ▲+1.3%vs his norm —
173 / 120 PA
BABIP.397
lg avg .295 ▲+.102vs his norm —BABIP is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
120 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %6.5%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−4.5%vs his norm —
173 / 50 PA
Chase %28.7%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+0.2%vs his norm —
173 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 1.7%→3.0%signal0 HR — Barrel% 1.7% (signal) lifted to league ~8.0% → projected 3.0%.
BABIP 0.397→0.335 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.397 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.324 (xBA 0.259) → 0.335.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.
slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 2 G) over ~0 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.