MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Ty France
500 PA · week 31
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH

Ty France

SD·1B
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Sell High luck-free skill 0.327 is 0.046 below the surface, regression coming — BABIP 0.342 far above league and nowhere near stable, inflating the line; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.77
ROSHR 0AVG .000R 0RBI 0SB 0

France is a sell-high — his BABIP is inflating the line.

His actual wOBA is .373, which reads like a star, but the number holding it up is not going to last. His BABIP is .342 against a league average of .295, and he has 340 balls in play — well short of the 800 it takes for that stat to mean anything. That gap is luck. His expected wOBA of .327 is .046 below the surface, and that difference is the regression coming. The contact quality is genuinely good and stable: 91.5 mph average exit velocity, a 47.4% hard-hit rate, all past the threshold. His strikeout and walk rates are league average, so there is no floor propping up the batting average when the bounces stop finding grass. The bat is real, just not this loud — the line is doing the selling. Sell high. The ROS line reads 0 HR / 0 R / 0 RBI / 0 SB / .000 AVG — a drop-tier tax, so take the trade window before that zero lands.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %9.1%—+1.9% ▲vs his ~7.2% career norm

Drivers

  • babipNOISEBABIP 0.342 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
  • xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.327 is 0.046 below the surface — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo91.5 mph
91.5 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+2.5 mphvs his norm —
340 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %47.4%
47.4%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+7.4%vs his norm —
340 / 50 BBE
Barrel %9.1%
norm9.1%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.1%vs his norm +1.9% ▲
340 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.327
believable since Jun 21.327*
lg avg .315 ▲+.012vs his norm —
500 / 160 PA
wOBA.373
.373*
lg avg .315 ▲+.058vs his norm —
500 / 200 PA
Strikeout %21.6%
21.6%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−0.4%vs his norm —
500 / 60 PA
Walk %7.4%
7.4%*
lg avg 8.5% ▼−1.1%vs his norm —
500 / 120 PA
BABIP.342
norm.342*
lg avg .295 ▲+.047vs his norm +.052 ▲BABIP is above his ~.290 norm — expect it to fall.
340 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %15.3%
15.3%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+4.3%vs his norm —
500 / 50 PA
Chase %34.5%
34.5%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+6.0%vs his norm —
500 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 9.1%→8.4%signal0 HR — Barrel% 9.1% (signal) tempered to career ~7.2% → projected 8.4%.
BABIP 0.342→0.300 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.342 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.269 (xBA 0.248) → 0.300.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.
slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (1 in 38 G) over ~0 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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