MLB Daily DeltaWeek 27 · September 27, 2026
238 PA · week 27
this weekSELL
last weekSELL

Josh Smith

TOR·2B
data as of September 27, 2026·week 27
Sell stable xwOBA 0.277 below league with no luck excuse; move on.med 0.63
ROSHR 0AVG .000R 0RBI 0SB 0

Smith is a sell — below-league bat with no luck to blame.

His expected wOBA is .277, .038 below the league average of .315, and he has 238 plate appearances — past the point where that number becomes reliable. His actual wOBA is .276, essentially identical, so nothing unlucky is dragging the line down. The contact quality agrees with the result: 85.8 mph average exit velocity against a league average of 89.0, a 30.3% hard-hit rate against 40.0%, and a 6.5% barrel rate below the 8.0% league mark. He has 155 batted balls, well past the 50 needed to trust contact quality. His expected wOBA has been stepping down across the sample, which points the same direction. The bat is what the numbers say it is. Sell. The ROS line says 0 HR / 0 R / 0 RBI / 0 SB / .000 AVG — that's streaming-only waiver depth, a drop, not a hold.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %6.5%—+1.2% ▲vs his ~5.3% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.277 below league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo85.8 mph
85.8 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−3.2 mphvs his norm —
155 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %30.3%
30.3%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−9.7%vs his norm —
155 / 50 BBE
Barrel %6.5%
norm6.5%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.5%vs his norm +1.2% ▲
155 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.277
.277*
lg avg .315 ▼−.038vs his norm —
238 / 160 PA
wOBA.276
.276*
lg avg .315 ▼−.039vs his norm —
238 / 200 PA
Strikeout %23.5%
23.5%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+1.5%vs his norm —
238 / 60 PA
Walk %10.5%
10.5%*
lg avg 8.5% ▲+2.0%vs his norm —
238 / 120 PA
BABIP.245
norm.245*
lg avg .295 ▼−.050vs his norm −.046 ▼BABIP is below his ~.291 norm — expect it to rise.
155 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.8%
11.8%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.8%vs his norm —
238 / 50 PA
Chase %34.3%
34.3%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+5.8%vs his norm —
238 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 6.5%→5.8%signal0 HR — Barrel% 6.5% (signal) tempered to career ~5.3% → projected 5.8%.
BABIP 0.245→0.249 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.245 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.250 (xBA 0.204) → 0.249.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.
slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (2 in 31 G) over ~0 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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