144 PA · week 18
this weekHOLD
last week—
Josh Smith
data as of July 28, 2026·week 18
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (0.274); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSHR 2AVG .214R 7RBI 7SB 2
Smith is a hold—league-average profile, nothing driving a move.
ROS projects HR 0 YTD → 2 ROS, AVG .217 YTD → .214 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Barrel %5.9%—+0.6% ▲vs his ~5.3% career norm
Drivers
- xwobaNOISEskill near league average (0.274)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo87.0 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−2.0 mphvs his norm —
102 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %31.4%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−8.6%vs his norm —
102 / 50 BBE
Barrel %5.9%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.1%vs his norm +0.6% ▲
102 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.274
lg avg .315 ▼−.041vs his norm —xwOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
144 / 160 PA
wOBA.263
lg avg .315 ▼−.052vs his norm —wOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
144 / 200 PA
Strikeout %18.8%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−3.2%vs his norm —
144 / 60 PA
Walk %9.7%
lg avg 8.5% ▲+1.2%vs his norm —
144 / 120 PA
BABIP.267
lg avg .295 ▼−.028vs his norm −.024 ▼BABIP is below his ~.291 norm — expect it to rise.
102 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.8%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.2%vs his norm —
144 / 50 PA
Chase %35.1%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+6.6%vs his norm —
144 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 5.9%→5.5%signal2 HR — Barrel% 5.9% (signal) tempered to career ~5.3% → projected 5.5%.
BABIP 0.267→0.259 regressednoise.214 AVG — BABIP 0.267 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.258 (xBA 0.210) → 0.259.
on-base + lineup7 R — his run rate over ~133 projected PA.
slugging + lineup7 RBI — his RBI rate over ~133 projected PA.
run rate / role2 SB — his steal rate (2 in 31 G) over ~133 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.