MLB Daily DeltaWeek 27 · September 30, 2026
201 PA · week 27
this weekSELL
last week—

Noelvi Marte

data as of September 30, 2026·week 27
Sell stable xwOBA 0.237 below league with no luck excuse; move on.med 0.71
ROSHR 0AVG .000R 0RBI 0SB 0

Marte is a sell — the bat is below league and there's no luck to blame.

His expected wOBA is .237, .078 below the league average of .315, and with 201 plate appearances, that number is past the point where it becomes reliable. It is not being dragged down by bad bounces either — his actual wOBA is .242, tracking right with it, so there is no unlucky gap waiting to close. The contact quality backs up the low number: 87.9 mph average exit velocity against 89.0 league, a 30.2% hard-hit rate against 40%, and a 5% barrel rate against 8%, all on 139 batted balls, well past the stabilization point. He also chases 41.2% of pitches outside the zone against a 28.5% league average and swings through 14.3%, so the at-bats are not generating better contact. His expected wOBA has been stepping down across the sample. This is the level. Sell. A 0 HR / 0 R / 0 RBI / 0 SB / .000 AVG ROS line makes him streaming-only — use the window to drop.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %5.0%—−3.0% ▼vs his ~8.0% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.237 below league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo87.9 mph
87.9 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−1.1 mphvs his norm —
139 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %30.2%
30.2%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−9.8%vs his norm —
139 / 50 BBE
Barrel %5.0%
norm5.0%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−3.0%vs his norm −3.0% ▼
139 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.237
.237*
lg avg .315 ▼−.078vs his norm —
201 / 160 PA
wOBA.242
.242*
lg avg .315 ▼−.073vs his norm —
201 / 200 PA
Strikeout %25.9%
25.9%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+3.9%vs his norm —
201 / 60 PA
Walk %5.0%
5.0%*
lg avg 8.5% ▼−3.5%vs his norm —
201 / 120 PA
BABIP.226
norm.226*
lg avg .295 ▼−.069vs his norm −.091 ▼BABIP is below his ~.317 norm — expect it to rise.
139 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %14.3%
14.3%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+3.3%vs his norm —
201 / 50 PA
Chase %41.2%
41.2%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+12.7%vs his norm —
201 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 5.0%→6.8%signal0 HR — Barrel% 5.0% (signal) lifted to career ~8.0% → projected 6.8%.
BABIP 0.226→0.271 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.226 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.281 (xBA 0.193) → 0.271.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.
slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (1 in 12 G) over ~0 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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