MLB Daily DeltaWeek 27 · September 27, 2026
192 PA · week 27
this weekSELL
last weekSELL

Javier Báez

DET·SS
data as of September 27, 2026·week 27
Sell stable xwOBA 0.261 below league with no luck excuse; move on.med 0.66
ROSAVG .000HR 0R 0RBI 0SB 0

Báez is a sell — the bat is below league with no luck involved

His expected wOBA is .261, which is .054 below the league average of .315, and he has 192 plate appearances for that number to be reliable. His actual wOBA tracks right with it, so there is no bad-luck story pulling the line down. His contact quality is also below league: 85.2 mph average exit velocity against a league average of 89.0, a 33.3% hard-hit rate against 40.0%, and a 2.8% barrel rate against 8.0%. Those are not numbers that turn around without a real change in approach. He chases 47.3% of pitches out of the zone — well above the 28.5% league average — and his swinging-strike rate of 16.2% tells the same story. There is no luck to give back and no skill waiting to break out. Sell. Projected 0 HR / 0 R / 0 RBI / 0 SB / .000 AVG makes him a drop — this is waiver-wire fodder, not a stash.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %2.8%—−3.1% ▼vs his ~5.9% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.261 below league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo85.2 mph
85.2 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−3.8 mphvs his norm —
144 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %33.3%
33.3%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−6.7%vs his norm —
144 / 50 BBE
Barrel %2.8%
norm2.8%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−5.2%vs his norm −3.1% ▼
144 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.261
.261*
lg avg .315 ▼−.054vs his norm —
192 / 160 PA
wOBA.272
.272*
lg avg .315 ▼−.043vs his norm —wOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
192 / 200 PA
Strikeout %20.8%
20.8%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−1.2%vs his norm —
192 / 60 PA
Walk %3.1%
3.1%*
lg avg 8.5% ▼−5.4%vs his norm —
192 / 120 PA
BABIP.284
norm.284*
lg avg .295 ▼−.011vs his norm +.007 ▲BABIP is above his ~.277 norm — expect it to fall.
144 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %16.3%
16.3%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+5.3%vs his norm —
192 / 50 PA
Chase %47.3%
47.3%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+18.8%vs his norm —
192 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 2.8%→4.6%signal0 HR — Barrel% 2.8% (signal) lifted to career ~5.9% → projected 4.6%.
BABIP 0.284→0.271 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.284 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.269 (xBA 0.235) → 0.271.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.
slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (1 in 24 G) over ~0 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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