169 PA · week 31
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
Jonah Cox
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Sell High luck-free skill 0.256 is 0.044 below the surface, regression coming; strikeout rate 38% is stable and high, caps the floor — BABIP 0.415 far above league and nowhere near stable, inflating the line; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.76 (narrative held for review)
ROSHR 0AVG .000R 0RBI 0SB 0
Cox is a sell-high — his BABIP is carrying a line it can't hold.
Surface line inflated by an unsustainable BABIP; the stable skill is lower. Sell high.
Drivers
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.415 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.256 is 0.044 below the surface — regression coming
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 38% is stable and high — caps the floor
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo88.3 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−0.7 mphvs his norm —
93 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %35.5%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−4.5%vs his norm —
93 / 50 BBE
Barrel %5.4%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.6%vs his norm —
93 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.256
lg avg .315 ▼−.059vs his norm —
169 / 160 PA
wOBA.300
lg avg .315 ▼−.015vs his norm —wOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
169 / 200 PA
Strikeout %38.5%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+16.5%vs his norm —
169 / 60 PA
Walk %5.9%
lg avg 8.5% ▼−2.6%vs his norm —
169 / 120 PA
BABIP.415
lg avg .295 ▲+.120vs his norm —BABIP is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
93 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %19.6%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+8.6%vs his norm —
169 / 50 PA
Chase %33.8%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+5.3%vs his norm —
169 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 5.4%→5.9%signal0 HR — Barrel% 5.4% (signal) lifted to league ~8.0% → projected 5.9%.
BABIP 0.415→0.384 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.415 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.380 (xBA 0.209) → 0.384.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.
slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 3 G) over ~0 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.