MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 11, 2026
104 PA · week 25
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH

Jonah Cox

SF·CF
data as of September 11, 2026·week 25
Sell High strikeout rate 38% is stable and high, caps the floor — BABIP 0.431 far above league and nowhere near stable, inflating the line; luck-free skill 0.256 is 0.082 below the surface, regression coming; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.76
ROSHR 0AVG .163R 5RBI 0SB 0

Cox is a sell-high — the BABIP is carrying a line that won't hold.

His wOBA sits at .338, which looks like a useful season until you see what is holding it up. His BABIP is .431 against a league average of .295, and BABIP needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable. He has 60. That gap is luck, not skill. Strip it out and his expected wOBA is .256, .059 below league average — the skill is well short of the surface. Worse, he strikes out 37.5% of the time, and that number is stable and still climbing across the sample. A 19.2% swinging-strike rate says the contact problems are real, not a cold stretch. Even with decent exit velocity and hard-hit contact, the strikeouts cap what he can produce. Sell high. With 0 HR / 5 R / 0 RBI / 0 SB / .163 AVG coming, this is deep-league waiver fodder — unload the inflated line now.

Drivers

  • babipNOISEBABIP 0.431 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
  • xwobaNOISEluck-free skill 0.256 is 0.082 below the surface — regression coming
  • k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 38% is stable and high — caps the floor
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo90.1 mph
90.1 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+1.1 mphvs his norm —
60 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %43.3%
43.3%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+3.3%vs his norm —
60 / 50 BBE
Barrel %8.3%
8.3%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.3%vs his norm —
60 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.256
.256*
lg avg .315 ▼−.059vs his norm —xwOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
104 / 160 PA
wOBA.338
.338*
lg avg .315 ▲+.023vs his norm —wOBA is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
104 / 200 PA
Strikeout %37.5%
37.5%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+15.5%vs his norm —
104 / 60 PA
Walk %4.8%
4.8%*
lg avg 8.5% ▼−3.7%vs his norm —Walk % is below the ~8.5% league average — expect it to rise.
104 / 120 PA
BABIP.431
.431*
lg avg .295 ▲+.136vs his norm —BABIP is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
60 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %19.2%
19.2%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+8.2%vs his norm —
104 / 50 PA
Chase %33.3%
33.3%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+4.8%vs his norm —
104 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 8.3%→8.2%signal0 HR — Barrel% 8.3% (signal) tempered to league ~8.0% → projected 8.2%.
BABIP 0.431→0.384 regressednoise.163 AVG — BABIP 0.431 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.380 (xBA 0.197) → 0.384.
on-base + lineup5 R — his run rate over ~24 projected PA.
slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~24 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 3 G) over ~24 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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